Consequently, P (t|w,θ) favors t = 1 for any sequence that does not contain exactly five heads, and assigns equal probability to t = 1 and t = 0 for any sequence that does contain exactly five heads -a counterintuitive result.
using some standard results in Bayesian analysis we can show that applying Equation 3 yields which is significantly less than .5 when n H = 5, and only favors t = 1 for sequences where n H ≥ 8 or n H ≤ 2.