Daily Papers

The core of Multi-view Stereo(MVS) is the matching process among reference and source pixels. Cost aggregation plays a significant role in this process, while previous methods focus on handling it via CNNs. This may inherit the natural limitation of CNNs that fail to discriminate repetitive or incorrect matches due to limited local receptive fields. To handle the issue, we aim to involve Transformer into cost aggregation. However, another problem may occur due to the quadratically growing computational complexity caused by Transformer, resulting in memory overflow and inference latency. In this paper, we overcome these limits with an efficient Transformer-based cost aggregation network, namely CostFormer. The Residual Depth-Aware Cost Transformer(RDACT) is proposed to aggregate long-range features on cost volume via self-attention mechanisms along the depth and spatial dimensions. Furthermore, Residual Regression Transformer(RRT) is proposed to enhance spatial attention. The proposed method is a universal plug-in to improve learning-based MVS methods.

We propose the Fourier Adaptive Lite Diffusion Architecture (FALDA), a novel probabilistic framework for time series forecasting. First, we introduce the Diffusion Model for Residual Regression (DMRR) framework, which unifies diffusion-based probabilistic regression methods. Within this framework, FALDA leverages Fourier-based decomposition to incorporate a component-specific architecture, enabling tailored modeling of individual temporal components. A conditional diffusion model is utilized to estimate the future noise term, while our proposed lightweight denoiser, DEMA (Decomposition MLP with AdaLN), conditions on the historical noise term to enhance denoising performance. Through mathematical analysis and empirical validation, we demonstrate that FALDA effectively reduces epistemic uncertainty, allowing probabilistic learning to primarily focus on aleatoric uncertainty. Experiments on six real-world benchmarks demonstrate that FALDA consistently outperforms existing probabilistic forecasting approaches across most datasets for long-term time series forecasting while achieving enhanced computational efficiency without compromising accuracy. Notably, FALDA also achieves superior overall performance compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) point forecasting approaches, with improvements of up to 9%.

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

As with many other problems, real-world regression is plagued by the presence of noisy labels, an inevitable issue that demands our attention. Fortunately, much real-world data often exhibits an intrinsic property of continuously ordered correlations between labels and features, where data points with similar labels are also represented with closely related features. In response, we propose a novel approach named ConFrag, where we collectively model the regression data by transforming them into disjoint yet contrasting fragmentation pairs. This enables the training of more distinctive representations, enhancing the ability to select clean samples. Our ConFrag framework leverages a mixture of neighboring fragments to discern noisy labels through neighborhood agreement among expert feature extractors. We extensively perform experiments on six newly curated benchmark datasets of diverse domains, including age prediction, price prediction, and music production year estimation. We also introduce a metric called Error Residual Ratio (ERR) to better account for varying degrees of label noise. Our approach consistently outperforms fourteen state-of-the-art baselines, being robust against symmetric and random Gaussian label noise.

In this paper, we introduce the idea of decomposing the residuals of regression with respect to the data instances instead of features. This allows us to determine the effects of each individual instance on the model and each other, and in doing so makes for a model-agnostic method of identifying instances of interest. In doing so, we can also determine the appropriateness of the model and data in the wider context of a given study. The paper focuses on the possible applications that such a framework brings to the relatively unexplored field of instance analysis in the context of Explainable AI tasks.

Removing degradation from document images not only improves their visual quality and readability, but also enhances the performance of numerous automated document analysis and recognition tasks. However, existing regression-based methods optimized for pixel-level distortion reduction tend to suffer from significant loss of high-frequency information, leading to distorted and blurred text edges. To compensate for this major deficiency, we propose DocDiff, the first diffusion-based framework specifically designed for diverse challenging document enhancement problems, including document deblurring, denoising, and removal of watermarks and seals. DocDiff consists of two modules: the Coarse Predictor (CP), which is responsible for recovering the primary low-frequency content, and the High-Frequency Residual Refinement (HRR) module, which adopts the diffusion models to predict the residual (high-frequency information, including text edges), between the ground-truth and the CP-predicted image. DocDiff is a compact and computationally efficient model that benefits from a well-designed network architecture, an optimized training loss objective, and a deterministic sampling process with short time steps. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DocDiff achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance on multiple benchmark datasets, and can significantly enhance the readability and recognizability of degraded document images. Furthermore, our proposed HRR module in pre-trained DocDiff is plug-and-play and ready-to-use, with only 4.17M parameters. It greatly sharpens the text edges generated by SOTA deblurring methods without additional joint training. Available codes: https://github.com/Royalvice/DocDiff

We introduce D-FINE, a powerful real-time object detector that achieves outstanding localization precision by redefining the bounding box regression task in DETR models. D-FINE comprises two key components: Fine-grained Distribution Refinement (FDR) and Global Optimal Localization Self-Distillation (GO-LSD). FDR transforms the regression process from predicting fixed coordinates to iteratively refining probability distributions, providing a fine-grained intermediate representation that significantly enhances localization accuracy. GO-LSD is a bidirectional optimization strategy that transfers localization knowledge from refined distributions to shallower layers through self-distillation, while also simplifying the residual prediction tasks for deeper layers. Additionally, D-FINE incorporates lightweight optimizations in computationally intensive modules and operations, achieving a better balance between speed and accuracy. Specifically, D-FINE-L / X achieves 54.0% / 55.8% AP on the COCO dataset at 124 / 78 FPS on an NVIDIA T4 GPU. When pretrained on Objects365, D-FINE-L / X attains 57.1% / 59.3% AP, surpassing all existing real-time detectors. Furthermore, our method significantly enhances the performance of a wide range of DETR models by up to 5.3% AP with negligible extra parameters and training costs. Our code and pretrained models: https://github.com/Peterande/D-FINE.

Existing state-of-the-art disparity estimation works mostly leverage the 4D concatenation volume and construct a very deep 3D convolution neural network (CNN) for disparity regression, which is inefficient due to the high memory consumption and slow inference speed. In this paper, we propose a network named EDNet for efficient disparity estimation. Firstly, we construct a combined volume which incorporates contextual information from the squeezed concatenation volume and feature similarity measurement from the correlation volume. The combined volume can be next aggregated by 2D convolutions which are faster and require less memory than 3D convolutions. Secondly, we propose an attention-based spatial residual module to generate attention-aware residual features. The attention mechanism is applied to provide intuitive spatial evidence about inaccurate regions with the help of error maps at multiple scales and thus improve the residual learning efficiency. Extensive experiments on the Scene Flow and KITTI datasets show that EDNet outperforms the previous 3D CNN based works and achieves state-of-the-art performance with significantly faster speed and less memory consumption.

Understanding and predicting human emotional and physiological states using wearable sensors has important applications in stress monitoring, mental health assessment, and affective computing. This study presents a novel Multi-Task Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) that performs Electrodermal Activity (EDA) prediction and emotion classification simultaneously, using the publicly available WESAD dataset. The model integrates psychological self-report features (PANAS and SAM) with a physics-inspired differential equation representing EDA dynamics, enforcing biophysically grounded constraints through a custom loss function. This loss combines EDA regression, emotion classification, and a physics residual term for improved interpretability. The architecture supports dual outputs for both tasks and is trained under a unified multi-task framework. Evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation, the model achieves an average EDA RMSE of 0.0362, Pearson correlation of 0.9919, and F1-score of 94.08 percent. These results outperform classical models such as SVR and XGBoost, as well as ablated variants like emotion-only and EDA-only models. In addition, the learned physical parameters including decay rate (alpha_0), emotional sensitivity (beta), and time scaling (gamma) are interpretable and stable across folds, aligning with known principles of human physiology. This work is the first to introduce a multi-task PINN framework for wearable emotion recognition, offering improved performance, generalizability, and model transparency. The proposed system provides a foundation for future interpretable and multimodal applications in healthcare and human-computer interaction.

Diffusion prior-based methods have shown impressive results in real-world image super-resolution (SR). However, most existing methods entangle pixel-level and semantic-level SR objectives in the training process, struggling to balance pixel-wise fidelity and perceptual quality. Meanwhile, users have varying preferences on SR results, thus it is demanded to develop an adjustable SR model that can be tailored to different fidelity-perception preferences during inference without re-training. We present Pixel-level and Semantic-level Adjustable SR (PiSA-SR), which learns two LoRA modules upon the pre-trained stable-diffusion (SD) model to achieve improved and adjustable SR results. We first formulate the SD-based SR problem as learning the residual between the low-quality input and the high-quality output, then show that the learning objective can be decoupled into two distinct LoRA weight spaces: one is characterized by the ell_2-loss for pixel-level regression, and another is characterized by the LPIPS and classifier score distillation losses to extract semantic information from pre-trained classification and SD models. In its default setting, PiSA-SR can be performed in a single diffusion step, achieving leading real-world SR results in both quality and efficiency. By introducing two adjustable guidance scales on the two LoRA modules to control the strengths of pixel-wise fidelity and semantic-level details during inference, PiSASR can offer flexible SR results according to user preference without re-training. Codes and models can be found at https://github.com/csslc/PiSA-SR.

Retrieving adverbs that describe an action in a video poses a crucial step towards fine-grained video understanding. We propose a framework for video-to-adverb retrieval (and vice versa) that aligns video embeddings with their matching compositional adverb-action text embedding in a joint embedding space. The compositional adverb-action text embedding is learned using a residual gating mechanism, along with a novel training objective consisting of triplet losses and a regression target. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on five recent benchmarks for video-adverb retrieval. Furthermore, we introduce dataset splits to benchmark video-adverb retrieval for unseen adverb-action compositions on subsets of the MSR-VTT Adverbs and ActivityNet Adverbs datasets. Our proposed framework outperforms all prior works for the generalisation task of retrieving adverbs from videos for unseen adverb-action compositions. Code and dataset splits are available at https://hummelth.github.io/ReGaDa/.

Automated discovery of physical laws from observational data in the real world is a grand challenge in AI. Current methods, relying on symbolic regression or LLMs, are limited to uni-modal data and overlook the rich, visual phenomenological representations of motion that are indispensable to physicists. This "sensory deprivation" severely weakens their ability to interpret the inherent spatio-temporal patterns within dynamic phenomena. To address this gap, we propose VIPER-R1, a multimodal model that performs Visual Induction for Physics-based Equation Reasoning to discover fundamental symbolic formulas. It integrates visual perception, trajectory data, and symbolic reasoning to emulate the scientific discovery process. The model is trained via a curriculum of Motion Structure Induction (MSI), using supervised fine-tuning to interpret kinematic phase portraits and to construct hypotheses guided by a Causal Chain of Thought (C-CoT), followed by Reward-Guided Symbolic Calibration (RGSC) to refine the formula structure with reinforcement learning. During inference, the trained VIPER-R1 acts as an agent: it first posits a high-confidence symbolic ansatz, then proactively invokes an external symbolic regression tool to perform Symbolic Residual Realignment (SR^2). This final step, analogous to a physicist's perturbation analysis, reconciles the theoretical model with empirical data. To support this research, we introduce PhysSymbol, a new 5,000-instance multimodal corpus. Experiments show that VIPER-R1 consistently outperforms state-of-the-art VLM baselines in accuracy and interpretability, enabling more precise discovery of physical laws. Project page: https://jiaaqiliu.github.io/VIPER-R1/

Classical machine learning models such as deep neural networks are usually trained by using Stochastic Gradient Descent-based (SGD) algorithms. The classical SGD can be interpreted as a discretization of the stochastic gradient flow. In this paper we propose a novel, robust and accelerated stochastic optimizer that relies on two key elements: (1) an accelerated Nesterov-like Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and (2) its semi-implicit Gauss-Seidel type discretization. The convergence and stability of the obtained method, referred to as NAG-GS, are first studied extensively in the case of the minimization of a quadratic function. This analysis allows us to come up with an optimal learning rate in terms of the convergence rate while ensuring the stability of NAG-GS. This is achieved by the careful analysis of the spectral radius of the iteration matrix and the covariance matrix at stationarity with respect to all hyperparameters of our method. Further, we show that NAG- GS is competitive with state-of-the-art methods such as momentum SGD with weight decay and AdamW for the training of machine learning models such as the logistic regression model, the residual networks models on standard computer vision datasets, Transformers in the frame of the GLUE benchmark and the recent Vision Transformers.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Deep residual networks have emerged as a family of extremely deep architectures showing compelling accuracy and nice convergence behaviors. In this paper, we analyze the propagation formulations behind the residual building blocks, which suggest that the forward and backward signals can be directly propagated from one block to any other block, when using identity mappings as the skip connections and after-addition activation. A series of ablation experiments support the importance of these identity mappings. This motivates us to propose a new residual unit, which makes training easier and improves generalization. We report improved results using a 1001-layer ResNet on CIFAR-10 (4.62% error) and CIFAR-100, and a 200-layer ResNet on ImageNet. Code is available at: https://github.com/KaimingHe/resnet-1k-layers

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models in long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. Specifically, we introduce the Residual Cycle Forecasting (RCF) technique, which utilizes learnable recurrent cycles to model the inherent periodic patterns within sequences, and then performs predictions on the residual components of the modeled cycles. Combining RCF with a Linear layer or a shallow MLP forms the simple yet powerful method proposed in this paper, called CycleNet. CycleNet achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy in multiple domains including electricity, weather, and energy, while offering significant efficiency advantages by reducing over 90% of the required parameter quantity. Furthermore, as a novel plug-and-play technique, the RCF can also significantly improve the prediction accuracy of existing models, including PatchTST and iTransformer. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ACAT-SCUT/CycleNet.

The rehearsal strategy is widely used to alleviate the catastrophic forgetting problem in class incremental learning (CIL) by preserving limited exemplars from previous tasks. With imbalanced sample numbers between old and new classes, the classifier learning can be biased. Existing CIL methods exploit the long-tailed (LT) recognition techniques, e.g., the adjusted losses and the data re-sampling methods, to handle the data imbalance issue within each increment task. In this work, the dynamic nature of data imbalance in CIL is shown and a novel Dynamic Residual Classifier (DRC) is proposed to handle this challenging scenario. Specifically, DRC is built upon a recent advance residual classifier with the branch layer merging to handle the model-growing problem. Moreover, DRC is compatible with different CIL pipelines and substantially improves them. Combining DRC with the model adaptation and fusion (MAF) pipeline, this method achieves state-of-the-art results on both the conventional CIL and the LT-CIL benchmarks. Extensive experiments are also conducted for a detailed analysis. The code is publicly available.

Decoding-based regression, which reformulates regression as a sequence generation task, has emerged as a promising paradigm of applying large language models for numerical prediction. However, its progress is hindered by the misalignment between discrete token-level objectives (e.g., cross-entropy) and continuous numerical values. Existing approaches relying on token-level constraints often fail to capture the global magnitude of the target value, limiting their precision and generalization. In this paper, we propose to unlock the potential of decoding-based regression via Reinforcement Learning (RL). We formulate the generation process as a Markov Decision Process, utilizing sequence-level rewards to enforce global numerical coherence. Extensive experiments on tabular regression and code metric regression demonstrate that our method (specifically with ReMax and GRPO) consistently outperforms both state-of-the-art token-level baselines and traditional regression heads, showing the superiority of introducing sequence-level signals. Our analysis further reveals that RL significantly enhances sampling efficiency and predictive precision, establishing decoding-based regression as a robust and accurate paradigm for general-purpose numerical prediction.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

We propose a deep learning methodology for multivariate regression that is based on pattern recognition that triggers fast learning over sensor data. We used a conversion of sensors-to-image which enables us to take advantage of Computer Vision architectures and training processes. In addition to this data preparation methodology, we explore the use of state-of-the-art architectures to generate regression outputs to predict agricultural crop continuous yield information. Finally, we compare with some of the top models reported in MLCAS2021. We found that using a straightforward training process, we were able to accomplish an MAE of 4.394, RMSE of 5.945, and R^2 of 0.861.

Deeper neural networks are more difficult to train. We present a residual learning framework to ease the training of networks that are substantially deeper than those used previously. We explicitly reformulate the layers as learning residual functions with reference to the layer inputs, instead of learning unreferenced functions. We provide comprehensive empirical evidence showing that these residual networks are easier to optimize, and can gain accuracy from considerably increased depth. On the ImageNet dataset we evaluate residual nets with a depth of up to 152 layers---8x deeper than VGG nets but still having lower complexity. An ensemble of these residual nets achieves 3.57% error on the ImageNet test set. This result won the 1st place on the ILSVRC 2015 classification task. We also present analysis on CIFAR-10 with 100 and 1000 layers. The depth of representations is of central importance for many visual recognition tasks. Solely due to our extremely deep representations, we obtain a 28% relative improvement on the COCO object detection dataset. Deep residual nets are foundations of our submissions to ILSVRC & COCO 2015 competitions, where we also won the 1st places on the tasks of ImageNet detection, ImageNet localization, COCO detection, and COCO segmentation.

In this paper, we present an efficient method for storing fine-tuned models by leveraging the low-rank properties of weight residuals. Our key observation is that weight residuals in large overparameterized models exhibit even stronger low-rank characteristics. Based on this insight, we propose Efficient Residual Encoding (ERE), a novel approach that achieves efficient storage of fine-tuned model weights by approximating the low-rank weight residuals. Furthermore, we analyze the robustness of weight residuals and push the limit of storage efficiency by utilizing additional quantization and layer-wise rank allocation. Our experimental results demonstrate that our method significantly reduces memory footprint while preserving performance in various tasks and modalities. We release our code.

This paper explores the problem of class-agnostic anomaly detection (AD), where the objective is to train one class-agnostic AD model that can generalize to detect anomalies in diverse new classes from different domains without any retraining or fine-tuning on the target data. When applied for new classes, the performance of current single- and multi-class AD methods is still unsatisfactory. One fundamental reason is that representation learning in existing methods is still class-related, namely, feature correlation. To address this issue, we propose residual features and construct a simple but effective framework, termed ResAD. Our core insight is to learn the residual feature distribution rather than the initial feature distribution. Residual features are formed by matching and then subtracting normal reference features. In this way, we can effectively realize feature decorrelation. Even in new classes, the distribution of normal residual features would not remarkably shift from the learned distribution. In addition, we think that residual features still have one issue: scale correlation. To this end, we propose a feature hypersphere constraining approach, which learns to constrain initial normal residual features into a spatial hypersphere for enabling the feature scales of different classes as consistent as possible. Furthermore, we propose a novel logbarrier bidirectional contraction OCC loss and vector quantization based feature distribution matching module to enhance ResAD, leading to the improved version of ResAD (ResAD++). Comprehensive experiments on eight real-world AD datasets demonstrate that our ResAD++ can achieve remarkable AD results when directly used in new classes, outperforming state-of-the-art competing methods and also surpassing ResAD. The code is available at https://github.com/xcyao00/ResAD.

Over the broad landscape of experimental design, regression has been a powerful tool to accurately predict the outcome metrics of a system or model given a set of parameters, but has been traditionally restricted to methods which are only applicable to a specific task. In this paper, we propose OmniPred, a framework for training language models as universal end-to-end regressors over (x,y) evaluation data from diverse real world experiments. Using data sourced from Google Vizier, one of the largest blackbox optimization databases in the world, our extensive experiments demonstrate that through only textual representations of mathematical parameters and values, language models are capable of very precise numerical regression, and if given the opportunity to train over multiple tasks, can significantly outperform traditional regression models.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Deep residual networks were shown to be able to scale up to thousands of layers and still have improving performance. However, each fraction of a percent of improved accuracy costs nearly doubling the number of layers, and so training very deep residual networks has a problem of diminishing feature reuse, which makes these networks very slow to train. To tackle these problems, in this paper we conduct a detailed experimental study on the architecture of ResNet blocks, based on which we propose a novel architecture where we decrease depth and increase width of residual networks. We call the resulting network structures wide residual networks (WRNs) and show that these are far superior over their commonly used thin and very deep counterparts. For example, we demonstrate that even a simple 16-layer-deep wide residual network outperforms in accuracy and efficiency all previous deep residual networks, including thousand-layer-deep networks, achieving new state-of-the-art results on CIFAR, SVHN, COCO, and significant improvements on ImageNet. Our code and models are available at https://github.com/szagoruyko/wide-residual-networks

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. We demonstrate, through numerical experiments on 91 tabular datasets for regression and classification, that RFRBoost significantly outperforms traditional RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets, while offering substantial computational advantages and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) has proven effective in learning control policies using robotic grippers, but much less practical for solving the problem of grasping with dexterous hands -- especially on real robotic platforms -- due to the high dimensionality of the problem. In this work, we focus on the multi-fingered grasping task with the anthropomorphic hand of the iCub humanoid. We propose the RESidual learning with PREtrained CriTics (RESPRECT) method that, starting from a policy pre-trained on a large set of objects, can learn a residual policy to grasp a novel object in a fraction (sim 5 times faster) of the timesteps required to train a policy from scratch, without requiring any task demonstration. To our knowledge, this is the first Residual Reinforcement Learning (RRL) approach that learns a residual policy on top of another policy pre-trained with DRL. We exploit some components of the pre-trained policy during residual learning that further speed-up the training. We benchmark our results in the iCub simulated environment, and we show that RESPRECT can be effectively used to learn a multi-fingered grasping policy on the real iCub robot. The code to reproduce the experiments is released together with the paper with an open source license.

Residual neural networks are state-of-the-art deep learning models. Their continuous-depth analog, neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs), are also widely used. Despite their success, the link between the discrete and continuous models still lacks a solid mathematical foundation. In this article, we take a step in this direction by establishing an implicit regularization of deep residual networks towards neural ODEs, for nonlinear networks trained with gradient flow. We prove that if the network is initialized as a discretization of a neural ODE, then such a discretization holds throughout training. Our results are valid for a finite training time, and also as the training time tends to infinity provided that the network satisfies a Polyak-Lojasiewicz condition. Importantly, this condition holds for a family of residual networks where the residuals are two-layer perceptrons with an overparameterization in width that is only linear, and implies the convergence of gradient flow to a global minimum. Numerical experiments illustrate our results.

The influential Residual Networks designed by He et al. remain the gold-standard architecture in numerous scientific publications. They typically serve as the default architecture in studies, or as baselines when new architectures are proposed. Yet there has been significant progress on best practices for training neural networks since the inception of the ResNet architecture in 2015. Novel optimization & data-augmentation have increased the effectiveness of the training recipes. In this paper, we re-evaluate the performance of the vanilla ResNet-50 when trained with a procedure that integrates such advances. We share competitive training settings and pre-trained models in the timm open-source library, with the hope that they will serve as better baselines for future work. For instance, with our more demanding training setting, a vanilla ResNet-50 reaches 80.4% top-1 accuracy at resolution 224x224 on ImageNet-val without extra data or distillation. We also report the performance achieved with popular models with our training procedure.

We consider the problem of conformal prediction under covariate shift. Given labeled data from a source domain and unlabeled data from a covariate shifted target domain, we seek to construct prediction sets with valid marginal coverage in the target domain. Most existing methods require estimating the unknown likelihood ratio function, which can be prohibitive for high-dimensional data such as images. To address this challenge, we introduce the likelihood ratio regularized quantile regression (LR-QR) algorithm, which combines the pinball loss with a novel choice of regularization in order to construct a threshold function without directly estimating the unknown likelihood ratio. We show that the LR-QR method has coverage at the desired level in the target domain, up to a small error term that we can control. Our proofs draw on a novel analysis of coverage via stability bounds from learning theory. Our experiments demonstrate that the LR-QR algorithm outperforms existing methods on high-dimensional prediction tasks, including a regression task for the Communities and Crime dataset, an image classification task from the WILDS repository, and an LLM question-answering task on the MMLU benchmark.

Deep residual architectures, such as ResNet and the Transformer, have enabled models of unprecedented depth, yet a formal understanding of why depth is so effective remains an open question. A popular intuition, following Veit et al. (2016), is that these residual networks behave like ensembles of many shallower models. Our key finding is an explicit analytical formula that verifies this ensemble perspective, proving that increasing network depth is mathematically equivalent to expanding the size of this implicit ensemble. Furthermore, our expansion reveals a hierarchical ensemble structure in which the combinatorial growth of computation paths leads to an explosion in the output signal, explaining the historical necessity of normalization layers in training deep models. This insight offers a first principles explanation for the historical dependence on normalization layers and sheds new light on a family of successful normalization-free techniques like SkipInit and Fixup. However, while these previous approaches infer scaling factors through optimizer analysis or a heuristic analogy to Batch Normalization, our work offers the first explanation derived directly from the network's inherent functional structure. Specifically, our Residual Expansion Theorem reveals that scaling each residual module provides a principled solution to taming the combinatorial explosion inherent to these architectures. We further show that this scaling acts as a capacity controls that also implicitly regularizes the model's complexity.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Convolutional neural network (CNN) depth is of crucial importance for image super-resolution (SR). However, we observe that deeper networks for image SR are more difficult to train. The low-resolution inputs and features contain abundant low-frequency information, which is treated equally across channels, hence hindering the representational ability of CNNs. To solve these problems, we propose the very deep residual channel attention networks (RCAN). Specifically, we propose a residual in residual (RIR) structure to form very deep network, which consists of several residual groups with long skip connections. Each residual group contains some residual blocks with short skip connections. Meanwhile, RIR allows abundant low-frequency information to be bypassed through multiple skip connections, making the main network focus on learning high-frequency information. Furthermore, we propose a channel attention mechanism to adaptively rescale channel-wise features by considering interdependencies among channels. Extensive experiments show that our RCAN achieves better accuracy and visual improvements against state-of-the-art methods.

AI researchers and practitioners increasingly apply large language models (LLMs) to what we call reasoning-intensive regression (RiR), i.e. deducing subtle numerical properties from text. Unlike standard language regression tasks, e.g. for sentiment or similarity, RiR often appears instead in ad-hoc problems like rubric-based scoring or domain-specific retrieval, where much deeper analysis of text is required while only limited task-specific training data and computation are available. We cast three realistic problems as RiR tasks to establish an initial benchmark, and use that to test our hypothesis that prompting frozen LLMs and finetuning Transformer encoders via gradient descent will both often struggle in RiR. We then propose MENTAT, a simple and lightweight method that combines batch-reflective prompt optimization with neural ensemble learning. MENTAT achieves up to 65% improvement over both baselines, though substantial room remains for future advances in RiR.

This study investigates the application of deep residual networks for predicting the dynamics of interacting three-dimensional rigid bodies. We present a framework combining a 3D physics simulator implemented in C++ with a deep learning model constructed using PyTorch. The simulator generates training data encompassing linear and angular motion, elastic collisions, fluid friction, gravitational effects, and damping. Our deep residual network, consisting of an input layer, multiple residual blocks, and an output layer, is designed to handle the complexities of 3D dynamics. We evaluate the network's performance using a datasetof 10,000 simulated scenarios, each involving 3-5 interacting rigid bodies. The model achieves a mean squared error of 0.015 for position predictions and 0.022 for orientation predictions, representing a 25% improvement over baseline methods. Our results demonstrate the network's ability to capture intricate physical interactions, with particular success in predicting elastic collisions and rotational dynamics. This work significantly contributes to physics-informed machine learning by showcasing the immense potential of deep residual networks in modeling complex 3D physical systems. We discuss our approach's limitations and propose future directions for improving generalization to more diverse object shapes and materials.

This work proposes a Residual Recurrent Neural Network (RRNet) for synthetically extracting spectral information, and estimating stellar atmospheric parameters together with 15 chemical element abundances for medium-resolution spectra from Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST). The RRNet consists of two fundamental modules: a residual module and a recurrent module. The residual module extracts spectral features based on the longitudinally driving power from parameters, while the recurrent module recovers spectral information and restrains the negative influences from noises based on Cross-band Belief Enhancement. RRNet is trained by the spectra from common stars between LAMOST DR7 and APOGEE-Payne catalog. The 17 stellar parameters and their uncertainties for 2.37 million medium-resolution spectra from LAMOST DR7 are predicted. For spectra with S/N >= 10, the precision of estimations Teff and log g are 88 K and 0.13 dex respectively, elements C, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Fe, Ni are 0.05 dex to 0.08 dex, and N, O, S, K, Ti, Cr, Mn are 0.09 dex to 0.14 dex, while that of Cu is 0.19 dex. Compared with StarNet and SPCANet, RRNet shows higher accuracy and robustness. In comparison to Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment and Galactic Archaeology with HERMES surveys, RRNet manifests good consistency within a reasonable range of bias. Finally, this work releases a catalog for 2.37 million medium-resolution spectra from the LAMOST DR7, the source code, the trained model and the experimental data respectively for astronomical science exploration and data processing algorithm research reference.

The success of large-scale language models like GPT can be attributed to their ability to efficiently predict the next token in a sequence. However, these models rely on constant computational effort regardless of the complexity of the token they are predicting, lacking the capacity for iterative refinement. In this paper, we introduce a novel Loop-Residual Neural Network, which achieves better performance by utilizing longer computational time without increasing the model size. Our approach revisits the input multiple times, refining the prediction by iteratively looping over a subset of the model with residual connections. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this method through experiments comparing versions of GPT-2 with our Loop-Residual models, showing improved performance in language modeling tasks while maintaining similar parameter counts. Importantly, these improvements are achieved without the need for extra training data.

Residual transformations enhance the representational depth and expressive power of large language models (LLMs). However, applying static residual transformations across all tokens in auto-regressive generation leads to a suboptimal trade-off between inference efficiency and generation fidelity. Existing methods, including Early Exiting, Skip Decoding, and Mixture-of-Depth address this by modulating the residual transformation based on token-level complexity. Nevertheless, these approaches predominantly consider the distance traversed by tokens through the model layers, neglecting the underlying velocity of residual evolution. We introduce Mixture of Multi-rate Residuals (M2R2), a framework that dynamically modulates residual velocity to improve early alignment, enhancing inference efficiency. Evaluations on reasoning oriented tasks such as Koala, Self-Instruct, WizardLM, and MT-Bench show M2R2 surpasses state-of-the-art distance-based strategies, balancing generation quality and speedup. In self-speculative decoding setup, M2R2 achieves up to 2.8x speedups on MT-Bench, outperforming methods like 2-model speculative decoding, Medusa, LookAhead Decoding, and DEED. In Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, integrating early residual alignment with ahead-of-time expert loading into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) accelerates decoding, reduces expert-switching bottlenecks, and achieves a 2.9x speedup, making it highly effective in resource-constrained environments.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has delivered impressive gains in mathematical and multimodal reasoning and has become a standard post-training paradigm for contemporary language and vision-language models. However, the RLVR recipe introduces a significant risk of capability regression, where models forget foundational skills after prolonged training without employing regularization strategies. We empirically confirm this concern, observing that open-source reasoning models suffer performance degradation on core capabilities such as perception and faithfulness. While imposing regularization terms like KL divergence can help prevent deviation from the base model, these terms are calculated on the current task, thus they do not guarantee broader knowledge. Meanwhile, commonly used experience replay across heterogeneous domains makes it nontrivial to decide how much training focus each objective should receive. To address this, we propose RECAP-a replay strategy with dynamic objective reweighting for general knowledge preservation. Our reweighting mechanism adapts in an online manner using short-horizon signals of convergence and instability, shifting the post-training focus away from saturated objectives and toward underperforming or volatile ones. Our method is end-to-end and readily applicable to existing RLVR pipelines without training additional models or heavy tuning. Extensive experiments on benchmarks based on Qwen2.5-VL-3B and Qwen2.5-VL-7B demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, which not only preserves general capabilities but also improves reasoning by enabling more flexible trade-offs among in-task rewards.

Data augmentation is becoming essential for improving regression performance in critical applications including manufacturing, climate prediction, and finance. Existing techniques for data augmentation largely focus on classification tasks and do not readily apply to regression tasks. In particular, the recent Mixup techniques for classification have succeeded in improving the model performance, which is reasonable due to the characteristics of the classification task, but has limitations in regression. We show that mixing examples that have large data distances using linear interpolations may have increasingly-negative effects on model performance. Our key idea is thus to limit the distances between examples that are mixed. We propose RegMix, a data augmentation framework for regression that learns for each example how many nearest neighbors it should be mixed with for the best model performance using a validation set. Our experiments conducted both on synthetic and real datasets show that RegMix outperforms state-of-the-art data augmentation baselines applicable to regression.

We study the connection between multicalibration and boosting for squared error regression. First we prove a useful characterization of multicalibration in terms of a ``swap regret'' like condition on squared error. Using this characterization, we give an exceedingly simple algorithm that can be analyzed both as a boosting algorithm for regression and as a multicalibration algorithm for a class H that makes use only of a standard squared error regression oracle for H. We give a weak learning assumption on H that ensures convergence to Bayes optimality without the need to make any realizability assumptions -- giving us an agnostic boosting algorithm for regression. We then show that our weak learning assumption on H is both necessary and sufficient for multicalibration with respect to H to imply Bayes optimality. We also show that if H satisfies our weak learning condition relative to another class C then multicalibration with respect to H implies multicalibration with respect to C. Finally we investigate the empirical performance of our algorithm experimentally using an open source implementation that we make available. Our code repository can be found at https://github.com/Declancharrison/Level-Set-Boosting.

In this paper, we introduce a novel theoretical framework for multi-task regression, applying random matrix theory to provide precise performance estimations, under high-dimensional, non-Gaussian data distributions. We formulate a multi-task optimization problem as a regularization technique to enable single-task models to leverage multi-task learning information. We derive a closed-form solution for multi-task optimization in the context of linear models. Our analysis provides valuable insights by linking the multi-task learning performance to various model statistics such as raw data covariances, signal-generating hyperplanes, noise levels, as well as the size and number of datasets. We finally propose a consistent estimation of training and testing errors, thereby offering a robust foundation for hyperparameter optimization in multi-task regression scenarios. Experimental validations on both synthetic and real-world datasets in regression and multivariate time series forecasting demonstrate improvements on univariate models, incorporating our method into the training loss and thus leveraging multivariate information.

Neural multivariate regression underpins a wide range of domains such as control, robotics, and finance, yet the geometry of its learned representations remains poorly characterized. While neural collapse has been shown to benefit generalization in classification, we find that analogous collapse in regression consistently degrades performance. To explain this contrast, we analyze models through the lens of intrinsic dimension. Across control tasks and synthetic datasets, we estimate the intrinsic dimension of last-layer features (ID_H) and compare it with that of the regression targets (ID_Y). Collapsed models exhibit ID_H < ID_Y, leading to over-compression and poor generalization, whereas non-collapsed models typically maintain ID_H > ID_Y. For the non-collapsed models, performance with respect to ID_H depends on the data quantity and noise levels. From these observations, we identify two regimes (over-compressed and under-compressed) that determine when expanding or reducing feature dimensionality improves performance. Our results provide new geometric insights into neural regression and suggest practical strategies for enhancing generalization.

The cost of hyperparameter tuning in deep learning has been rising with model sizes, prompting practitioners to find new tuning methods using a proxy of smaller networks. One such proposal uses muP parameterized networks, where the optimal hyperparameters for small width networks transfer to networks with arbitrarily large width. However, in this scheme, hyperparameters do not transfer across depths. As a remedy, we study residual networks with a residual branch scale of 1/text{depth} in combination with the muP parameterization. We provide experiments demonstrating that residual architectures including convolutional ResNets and Vision Transformers trained with this parameterization exhibit transfer of optimal hyperparameters across width and depth on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet. Furthermore, our empirical findings are supported and motivated by theory. Using recent developments in the dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) description of neural network learning dynamics, we show that this parameterization of ResNets admits a well-defined feature learning joint infinite-width and infinite-depth limit and show convergence of finite-size network dynamics towards this limit.

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent preprocessing, such as mean-centering, rescaling, dimensionality reduction, and outlier removal. It is often believed that such preprocessing stages, if done in an unsupervised manner (that does not incorporate the class labels or response values) are generally safe to do prior to cross-validation. In this paper, we study three commonly-practiced preprocessing procedures prior to a regression analysis: (i) variance-based feature selection; (ii) grouping of rare categorical features; and (iii) feature rescaling. We demonstrate that unsupervised preprocessing can, in fact, introduce a substantial bias into cross-validation estimates and potentially hurt model selection. This bias may be either positive or negative and its exact magnitude depends on all the parameters of the problem in an intricate manner. Further research is needed to understand the real-world impact of this bias across different application domains, particularly when dealing with small sample sizes and high-dimensional data.

We present ResMLP, an architecture built entirely upon multi-layer perceptrons for image classification. It is a simple residual network that alternates (i) a linear layer in which image patches interact, independently and identically across channels, and (ii) a two-layer feed-forward network in which channels interact independently per patch. When trained with a modern training strategy using heavy data-augmentation and optionally distillation, it attains surprisingly good accuracy/complexity trade-offs on ImageNet. We also train ResMLP models in a self-supervised setup, to further remove priors from employing a labelled dataset. Finally, by adapting our model to machine translation we achieve surprisingly good results. We share pre-trained models and our code based on the Timm library.

We introduce a novel class of untrained Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) within the Reservoir Computing (RC) paradigm, called Residual Reservoir Memory Networks (ResRMNs). ResRMN combines a linear memory reservoir with a non-linear reservoir, where the latter is based on residual orthogonal connections along the temporal dimension for enhanced long-term propagation of the input. The resulting reservoir state dynamics are studied through the lens of linear stability analysis, and we investigate diverse configurations for the temporal residual connections. The proposed approach is empirically assessed on time-series and pixel-level 1-D classification tasks. Our experimental results highlight the advantages of the proposed approach over other conventional RC models.

Image-level regression is an important task in Earth observation, where visual domain and label shifts are a core challenge hampering generalization. However, cross-domain regression within remote sensing data remains understudied due to the absence of suited datasets. We introduce a new dataset with aerial and satellite imagery in five countries with three forest-related regression tasks. To match real-world applicative interests, we compare methods through a restrictive setup where no prior on the target domain is available during training, and models are adapted with limited information during testing. Building on the assumption that ordered relationships generalize better, we propose manifold diffusion for regression as a strong baseline for transduction in low-data regimes. Our comparison highlights the comparative advantages of inductive and transductive methods in cross-domain regression.

Fine-tuning multi-turn dialogue systems requires high-quality supervision but often suffers from degraded performance when exposed to low-quality data. Supervision errors in early turns can propagate across subsequent turns, undermining coherence and response quality. Existing methods typically address data quality via static prefiltering, which decouples quality control from training and fails to mitigate turn-level error propagation. In this context, we propose ReSURE (Regularizing Supervision UnREliability), an adaptive learning method that dynamically down-weights unreliable supervision without explicit filtering. ReSURE estimates per-turn loss distributions using Welford's online statistics and reweights sample losses on the fly accordingly. Experiments on both single-source and mixed-quality datasets show improved stability and response quality. Notably, ReSURE enjoys positive Spearman correlations (0.21 ~ 1.0 across multiple benchmarks) between response scores and number of samples regardless of data quality, which potentially paves the way for utilizing large-scale data effectively. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Elvin-Yiming-Du/ReSURE_Multi_Turn_Training.

In nature, the behaviors of many complex systems can be described by parsimonious math equations. Automatically distilling these equations from limited data is cast as a symbolic regression process which hitherto remains a grand challenge. Keen efforts in recent years have been placed on tackling this issue and demonstrated success in symbolic regression. However, there still exist bottlenecks that current methods struggle to break when the discrete search space tends toward infinity and especially when the underlying math formula is intricate. To this end, we propose a novel Reinforcement Symbolic Regression Machine (RSRM) that masters the capability of uncovering complex math equations from only scarce data. The RSRM model is composed of three key modules: (1) a Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) agent that explores optimal math expression trees consisting of pre-defined math operators and variables, (2) a Double Q-learning block that helps reduce the feasible search space of MCTS via properly understanding the distribution of reward, and (3) a modulated sub-tree discovery block that heuristically learns and defines new math operators to improve representation ability of math expression trees. Biding of these modules yields the state-of-the-art performance of RSRM in symbolic regression as demonstrated by multiple sets of benchmark examples. The RSRM model shows clear superiority over several representative baseline models.

Scene regression methods, such as VGGT, solve the Structure-from-Motion (SfM) problem by directly regressing camera poses and 3D scene structures from input images. They demonstrate impressive performance in handling images under extreme viewpoint changes. However, these methods struggle to handle a large number of input images. To address this problem, we introduce SAIL-Recon, a feed-forward Transformer for large scale SfM, by augmenting the scene regression network with visual localization capabilities. Specifically, our method first computes a neural scene representation from a subset of anchor images. The regression network is then fine-tuned to reconstruct all input images conditioned on this neural scene representation. Comprehensive experiments show that our method not only scales efficiently to large-scale scenes, but also achieves state-of-the-art results on both camera pose estimation and novel view synthesis benchmarks, including TUM-RGBD, CO3Dv2, and Tanks & Temples. We will publish our model and code. Code and models are publicly available at: https://hkust-sail.github.io/ sail-recon/.

With the introduction of data protection and privacy regulations, it has become crucial to remove the lineage of data on demand from a machine learning (ML) model. In the last few years, there have been notable developments in machine unlearning to remove the information of certain training data efficiently and effectively from ML models. In this work, we explore unlearning for the regression problem, particularly in deep learning models. Unlearning in classification and simple linear regression has been considerably investigated. However, unlearning in deep regression models largely remains an untouched problem till now. In this work, we introduce deep regression unlearning methods that generalize well and are robust to privacy attacks. We propose the Blindspot unlearning method which uses a novel weight optimization process. A randomly initialized model, partially exposed to the retain samples and a copy of the original model are used together to selectively imprint knowledge about the data that we wish to keep and scrub off the information of the data we wish to forget. We also propose a Gaussian fine tuning method for regression unlearning. The existing unlearning metrics for classification are not directly applicable to regression unlearning. Therefore, we adapt these metrics for the regression setting. We conduct regression unlearning experiments for computer vision, natural language processing and forecasting applications. Our methods show excellent performance for all these datasets across all the metrics. Source code: https://github.com/ayu987/deep-regression-unlearning

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Symbolic regression (SR) aims to discover closed-form mathematical expressions that accurately describe data, offering interpretability and analytical insight beyond standard black-box models. Existing SR methods often rely on population-based search or autoregressive modeling, which struggle with scalability and symbolic consistency. We introduce LIES (Logarithm, Identity, Exponential, Sine), a fixed neural network architecture with interpretable primitive activations that are optimized to model symbolic expressions. We develop a framework to extract compact formulae from LIES networks by training with an appropriate oversampling strategy and a tailored loss function to promote sparsity and to prevent gradient instability. After training, it applies additional pruning strategies to further simplify the learned expressions into compact formulae. Our experiments on SR benchmarks show that the LIES framework consistently produces sparse and accurate symbolic formulae outperforming all baselines. We also demonstrate the importance of each design component through ablation studies.

State of the art Symbolic Regression (SR) methods currently build specialized models, while the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) remains largely unexplored. In this work, we introduce the first comprehensive framework that utilizes LLMs for the task of SR. We propose In-Context Symbolic Regression (ICSR), an SR method which iteratively refines a functional form with an LLM and determines its coefficients with an external optimizer. ICSR leverages LLMs' strong mathematical prior both to propose an initial set of possible functions given the observations and to refine them based on their errors. Our findings reveal that LLMs are able to successfully find symbolic equations that fit the given data, matching or outperforming the overall performance of the best SR baselines on four popular benchmarks, while yielding simpler equations with better out of distribution generalization.

The ability to learn new concepts continually is necessary in this ever-changing world. However, deep neural networks suffer from catastrophic forgetting when learning new categories. Many works have been proposed to alleviate this phenomenon, whereas most of them either fall into the stability-plasticity dilemma or take too much computation or storage overhead. Inspired by the gradient boosting algorithm to gradually fit the residuals between the target model and the previous ensemble model, we propose a novel two-stage learning paradigm FOSTER, empowering the model to learn new categories adaptively. Specifically, we first dynamically expand new modules to fit the residuals between the target and the output of the original model. Next, we remove redundant parameters and feature dimensions through an effective distillation strategy to maintain the single backbone model. We validate our method FOSTER on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-100/1000 under different settings. Experimental results show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at: https://github.com/G-U-N/ECCV22-FOSTER.

Backward compatibility of model predictions is a desired property when updating a machine learning driven application. It allows to seamlessly improve the underlying model without introducing regression bugs. In classification tasks these bugs occur in the form of negative flips. This means an instance that was correctly classified by the old model is now classified incorrectly by the updated model. This has direct negative impact on the user experience of such systems e.g. a frequently used voice assistant query is suddenly misclassified. A common reason to update the model is when new training data becomes available and needs to be incorporated. Simply retraining the model with the updated data introduces the unwanted negative flips. We study the problem of regression during data updates and propose Backward Compatible Weight Interpolation (BCWI). This method interpolates between the weights of the old and new model and we show in extensive experiments that it reduces negative flips without sacrificing the improved accuracy of the new model. BCWI is straight forward to implement and does not increase inference cost. We also explore the use of importance weighting during interpolation and averaging the weights of multiple new models in order to further reduce negative flips.

With the rise of large language models (LLMs) for flexibly processing information as strings, a natural application is regression, specifically by preprocessing string representations into LLM embeddings as downstream features for metric prediction. In this paper, we provide one of the first comprehensive investigations into embedding-based regression and demonstrate that LLM embeddings as features can be better for high-dimensional regression tasks than using traditional feature engineering. This regression performance can be explained in part due to LLM embeddings over numeric data inherently preserving Lipschitz continuity over the feature space. Furthermore, we quantify the contribution of different model effects, most notably model size and language understanding, which we find surprisingly do not always improve regression performance.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

Neural sequence models, especially transformers, exhibit a remarkable capacity for in-context learning. They can construct new predictors from sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) presented in the input without further parameter updates. We investigate the hypothesis that transformer-based in-context learners implement standard learning algorithms implicitly, by encoding smaller models in their activations, and updating these implicit models as new examples appear in the context. Using linear regression as a prototypical problem, we offer three sources of evidence for this hypothesis. First, we prove by construction that transformers can implement learning algorithms for linear models based on gradient descent and closed-form ridge regression. Second, we show that trained in-context learners closely match the predictors computed by gradient descent, ridge regression, and exact least-squares regression, transitioning between different predictors as transformer depth and dataset noise vary, and converging to Bayesian estimators for large widths and depths. Third, we present preliminary evidence that in-context learners share algorithmic features with these predictors: learners' late layers non-linearly encode weight vectors and moment matrices. These results suggest that in-context learning is understandable in algorithmic terms, and that (at least in the linear case) learners may rediscover standard estimation algorithms. Code and reference implementations are released at https://github.com/ekinakyurek/google-research/blob/master/incontext.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

In symbolic regression, the goal is to find an analytical expression that accurately fits experimental data with the minimal use of mathematical symbols such as operators, variables, and constants. However, the combinatorial space of possible expressions can make it challenging for traditional evolutionary algorithms to find the correct expression in a reasonable amount of time. To address this issue, Neural Symbolic Regression (NSR) algorithms have been developed that can quickly identify patterns in the data and generate analytical expressions. However, these methods, in their current form, lack the capability to incorporate user-defined prior knowledge, which is often required in natural sciences and engineering fields. To overcome this limitation, we propose a novel neural symbolic regression method, named Neural Symbolic Regression with Hypothesis (NSRwH) that enables the explicit incorporation of assumptions about the expected structure of the ground-truth expression into the prediction process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed conditioned deep learning model outperforms its unconditioned counterparts in terms of accuracy while also providing control over the predicted expression structure.

Financial markets have a vital role in the development of modern society. They allow the deployment of economic resources. Changes in stock prices reflect changes in the market. In this study, we focus on predicting stock prices by deep learning model. This is a challenge task, because there is much noise and uncertainty in information that is related to stock prices. So this work uses sparse autoencoders with one-dimension (1-D) residual convolutional networks which is a deep learning model, to de-noise the data. Long-short term memory (LSTM) is then used to predict the stock price. The prices, indices and macroeconomic variables in past are the features used to predict the next day's price. Experiment results show that 1-D residual convolutional networks can de-noise data and extract deep features better than a model that combines wavelet transforms (WT) and stacked autoencoders (SAEs). In addition, we compare the performances of model with two different forecast targets of stock price: absolute stock price and price rate of change. The results show that predicting stock price through price rate of change is better than predicting absolute prices directly.

Recent advances in behavior cloning (BC) have enabled impressive visuomotor control policies. However, these approaches are limited by the quality of human demonstrations, the manual effort required for data collection, and the diminishing returns from increasing offline data. In comparison, reinforcement learning (RL) trains an agent through autonomous interaction with the environment and has shown remarkable success in various domains. Still, training RL policies directly on real-world robots remains challenging due to sample inefficiency, safety concerns, and the difficulty of learning from sparse rewards for long-horizon tasks, especially for high-degree-of-freedom (DoF) systems. We present a recipe that combines the benefits of BC and RL through a residual learning framework. Our approach leverages BC policies as black-box bases and learns lightweight per-step residual corrections via sample-efficient off-policy RL. We demonstrate that our method requires only sparse binary reward signals and can effectively improve manipulation policies on high-degree-of-freedom (DoF) systems in both simulation and the real world. In particular, we demonstrate, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful real-world RL training on a humanoid robot with dexterous hands. Our results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in various vision-based tasks, pointing towards a practical pathway for deploying RL in the real world. Project website: https://residual-offpolicy-rl.github.io

In this work, we propose "Residual Attention Network", a convolutional neural network using attention mechanism which can incorporate with state-of-art feed forward network architecture in an end-to-end training fashion. Our Residual Attention Network is built by stacking Attention Modules which generate attention-aware features. The attention-aware features from different modules change adaptively as layers going deeper. Inside each Attention Module, bottom-up top-down feedforward structure is used to unfold the feedforward and feedback attention process into a single feedforward process. Importantly, we propose attention residual learning to train very deep Residual Attention Networks which can be easily scaled up to hundreds of layers. Extensive analyses are conducted on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets to verify the effectiveness of every module mentioned above. Our Residual Attention Network achieves state-of-the-art object recognition performance on three benchmark datasets including CIFAR-10 (3.90% error), CIFAR-100 (20.45% error) and ImageNet (4.8% single model and single crop, top-5 error). Note that, our method achieves 0.6% top-1 accuracy improvement with 46% trunk depth and 69% forward FLOPs comparing to ResNet-200. The experiment also demonstrates that our network is robust against noisy labels.

We analyze how well pre-trained large language models (e.g., Llama2, GPT-4, Claude 3, etc) can do linear and non-linear regression when given in-context examples, without any additional training or gradient updates. Our findings reveal that several large language models (e.g., GPT-4, Claude 3) are able to perform regression tasks with a performance rivaling (or even outperforming) that of traditional supervised methods such as Random Forest, Bagging, or Gradient Boosting. For example, on the challenging Friedman #2 regression dataset, Claude 3 outperforms many supervised methods such as AdaBoost, SVM, Random Forest, KNN, or Gradient Boosting. We then investigate how well the performance of large language models scales with the number of in-context exemplars. We borrow from the notion of regret from online learning and empirically show that LLMs are capable of obtaining a sub-linear regret.

In our era of enormous neural networks, empirical progress has been driven by the philosophy that more is better. Recent deep learning practice has found repeatedly that larger model size, more data, and more computation (resulting in lower training loss) improves performance. In this paper, we give theoretical backing to these empirical observations by showing that these three properties hold in random feature (RF) regression, a class of models equivalent to shallow networks with only the last layer trained. Concretely, we first show that the test risk of RF regression decreases monotonically with both the number of features and the number of samples, provided the ridge penalty is tuned optimally. In particular, this implies that infinite width RF architectures are preferable to those of any finite width. We then proceed to demonstrate that, for a large class of tasks characterized by powerlaw eigenstructure, training to near-zero training loss is obligatory: near-optimal performance can only be achieved when the training error is much smaller than the test error. Grounding our theory in real-world data, we find empirically that standard computer vision tasks with convolutional neural tangent kernels clearly fall into this class. Taken together, our results tell a simple, testable story of the benefits of overparameterization, overfitting, and more data in random feature models.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as an effective approach for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). The Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) family has demonstrated strong performance in training LLMs with RLVR. However, as models train longer and scale larger, more training prompts become residual prompts, those with zero variance rewards that provide no training signal. Consequently, fewer prompts contribute to training, reducing diversity and hindering effectiveness. To fully exploit these residual prompts, we propose the Explore Residual Prompts in Policy Optimization (ERPO) framework, which encourages exploration on residual prompts and reactivates their training signals. ERPO maintains a history tracker for each prompt and adaptively increases the sampling temperature for residual prompts that previously produced all correct responses. This encourages the model to generate more diverse reasoning traces, introducing incorrect responses that revive training signals. Empirical results on the Qwen2.5 series demonstrate that ERPO consistently surpasses strong baselines across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks.

Deep learning (DL) based semantic segmentation methods have been providing state-of-the-art performance in the last few years. More specifically, these techniques have been successfully applied to medical image classification, segmentation, and detection tasks. One deep learning technique, U-Net, has become one of the most popular for these applications. In this paper, we propose a Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network (RCNN) based on U-Net as well as a Recurrent Residual Convolutional Neural Network (RRCNN) based on U-Net models, which are named RU-Net and R2U-Net respectively. The proposed models utilize the power of U-Net, Residual Network, as well as RCNN. There are several advantages of these proposed architectures for segmentation tasks. First, a residual unit helps when training deep architecture. Second, feature accumulation with recurrent residual convolutional layers ensures better feature representation for segmentation tasks. Third, it allows us to design better U-Net architecture with same number of network parameters with better performance for medical image segmentation. The proposed models are tested on three benchmark datasets such as blood vessel segmentation in retina images, skin cancer segmentation, and lung lesion segmentation. The experimental results show superior performance on segmentation tasks compared to equivalent models including U-Net and residual U-Net (ResU-Net).

Should prediction models always deliver a prediction? In the pursuit of maximum predictive performance, critical considerations of reliability and fairness are often overshadowed, particularly when it comes to the role of uncertainty. Selective regression, also known as the "reject option," allows models to abstain from predictions in cases of considerable uncertainty. Initially proposed seven decades ago, approaches to selective regression have mostly focused on distribution-based proxies for measuring uncertainty, particularly conditional variance. However, this focus neglects the significant influence of model-specific biases on a model's performance. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to selective regression by leveraging conformal prediction, which provides grounded confidence measures for individual predictions based on model-specific biases. In addition, we propose a standardized evaluation framework to allow proper comparison of selective regression approaches. Via an extensive experimental approach, we demonstrate how our proposed approach, conformalized selective regression, demonstrates an advantage over multiple state-of-the-art baselines.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) have shown remarkable performance in image classification tasks in recent years. Generally, deep neural network architectures are stacks consisting of a large number of convolutional layers, and they perform downsampling along the spatial dimension via pooling to reduce memory usage. Concurrently, the feature map dimension (i.e., the number of channels) is sharply increased at downsampling locations, which is essential to ensure effective performance because it increases the diversity of high-level attributes. This also applies to residual networks and is very closely related to their performance. In this research, instead of sharply increasing the feature map dimension at units that perform downsampling, we gradually increase the feature map dimension at all units to involve as many locations as possible. This design, which is discussed in depth together with our new insights, has proven to be an effective means of improving generalization ability. Furthermore, we propose a novel residual unit capable of further improving the classification accuracy with our new network architecture. Experiments on benchmark CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet datasets have shown that our network architecture has superior generalization ability compared to the original residual networks. Code is available at https://github.com/jhkim89/PyramidNet}

Deep residual networks (ResNets) have demonstrated outstanding success in computer vision tasks, attributed to their ability to maintain gradient flow through deep architectures. Simultaneously, controlling the Lipschitz bound in neural networks has emerged as an essential area of research for enhancing adversarial robustness and network certifiability. This paper uses a rigorous approach to design L-Lipschitz deep residual networks using a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) framework. The ResNet architecture was reformulated as a pseudo-tri-diagonal LMI with off-diagonal elements and derived closed-form constraints on network parameters to ensure L-Lipschitz continuity. To address the lack of explicit eigenvalue computations for such matrix structures, the Gershgorin circle theorem was employed to approximate eigenvalue locations, guaranteeing the LMI's negative semi-definiteness. Our contributions include a provable parameterization methodology for constructing Lipschitz-constrained networks and a compositional framework for managing recursive systems within hierarchical architectures. These findings enable robust network designs applicable to adversarial robustness, certified training, and control systems. However, a limitation was identified in the Gershgorin-based approximations, which over-constrain the system, suppressing non-linear dynamics and diminishing the network's expressive capacity.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

This work challenges the residual prediction paradigm in visual autoregressive modeling and presents FlexVAR, a new Flexible Visual AutoRegressive image generation paradigm. FlexVAR facilitates autoregressive learning with ground-truth prediction, enabling each step to independently produce plausible images. This simple, intuitive approach swiftly learns visual distributions and makes the generation process more flexible and adaptable. Trained solely on low-resolution images (leq 256px), FlexVAR can: (1) Generate images of various resolutions and aspect ratios, even exceeding the resolution of the training images. (2) Support various image-to-image tasks, including image refinement, in/out-painting, and image expansion. (3) Adapt to various autoregressive steps, allowing for faster inference with fewer steps or enhancing image quality with more steps. Our 1.0B model outperforms its VAR counterpart on the ImageNet 256times256 benchmark. Moreover, when zero-shot transfer the image generation process with 13 steps, the performance further improves to 2.08 FID, outperforming state-of-the-art autoregressive models AiM/VAR by 0.25/0.28 FID and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.52/0.19 FID, respectively. When transferring our 1.0B model to the ImageNet 512times512 benchmark in a zero-shot manner, FlexVAR achieves competitive results compared to the VAR 2.3B model, which is a fully supervised model trained at 512times512 resolution.

In the era of proliferation of large language and image generation models, the phenomenon of "model collapse" refers to the situation whereby as a model is trained recursively on data generated from previous generations of itself over time, its performance degrades until the model eventually becomes completely useless, i.e the model collapses. In this work, we study this phenomenon in the setting of high-dimensional regression and obtain analytic formulae which quantitatively outline this phenomenon in a broad range of regimes. In the special case of polynomial decaying spectral and source conditions, we obtain modified scaling laws which exhibit new crossover phenomena from fast to slow rates. We also propose a simple strategy based on adaptive regularization to mitigate model collapse. Our theoretical results are validated with experiments.

Recurrent neural network (RNN) and connectionist temporal classification (CTC) have showed successes in many sequence labeling tasks with the strong ability of dealing with the problems where the alignment between the inputs and the target labels is unknown. Residual network is a new structure of convolutional neural network and works well in various computer vision tasks. In this paper, we take advantage of the architectures mentioned above to create a new network for handwritten digit string recognition. First we design a residual network to extract features from input images, then we employ a RNN to model the contextual information within feature sequences and predict recognition results. At the top of this network, a standard CTC is applied to calculate the loss and yield the final results. These three parts compose an end-to-end trainable network. The proposed new architecture achieves the highest performances on ORAND-CAR-A and ORAND-CAR-B with recognition rates 89.75% and 91.14%, respectively. In addition, the experiments on a generated captcha dataset which has much longer string length show the potential of the proposed network to handle long strings.

We present 3DRegNet, a novel deep learning architecture for the registration of 3D scans. Given a set of 3D point correspondences, we build a deep neural network to address the following two challenges: (i) classification of the point correspondences into inliers/outliers, and (ii) regression of the motion parameters that align the scans into a common reference frame. With regard to regression, we present two alternative approaches: (i) a Deep Neural Network (DNN) registration and (ii) a Procrustes approach using SVD to estimate the transformation. Our correspondence-based approach achieves a higher speedup compared to competing baselines. We further propose the use of a refinement network, which consists of a smaller 3DRegNet as a refinement to improve the accuracy of the registration. Extensive experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that we outperform other methods and achieve state-of-the-art results. The code is available.

Enhancing the intelligibility and interpretability of machine learning is a crucial task in responding to the demand for Explicability as an AI principle, and in promoting the better social implementation of AI. The aim of our research is to contribute to this improvement by reformulating machine learning models through the lens of category theory, thereby developing a semantic framework for structuring and understanding AI systems. Our categorical modeling in this paper clarifies and formalizes the structural interplay between residuals and parameters in supervised learning. The present paper focuses on the multiple linear regression model, which represents the most basic form of supervised learning. By defining two concrete categories corresponding to parameters and data, along with an adjoint pair of functors between them, we introduce our categorical formulation of supervised learning. We show that the essential structure of this framework is captured by what we call the Gauss-Markov Adjunction. Within this setting, the dual flow of information can be explicitly described as a correspondence between variations in parameters and residuals. The ordinary least squares estimator for the parameters and the minimum residual are related via the preservation of limits by the right adjoint functor. Furthermore, we position this formulation as an instance of extended denotational semantics for supervised learning, and propose applying a semantic perspective developed in theoretical computer science as a formal foundation for Explicability in AI.

We study code-to-metric regression: predicting numeric outcomes of code executions, a challenging task due to the open-ended nature of programming languages. While prior methods have resorted to heavy and domain-specific feature engineering, we show that a single unified Regression Language Model (RLM) can simultaneously predict directly from text, (i) the memory footprint of code across multiple high-level languages such as Python and C++, (ii) the latency of Triton GPU kernels, and (iii) the accuracy and speed of trained neural networks represented in ONNX. In particular, a relatively small 300M parameter RLM initialized from T5Gemma, obtains > 0.9 Spearman-rank on competitive programming submissions from APPS, and a single unified model achieves > 0.5 average Spearman-rank across 17 separate languages from CodeNet. Furthermore, the RLM can obtain the highest average Kendall-Tau of 0.46 on five classic NAS design spaces previously dominated by graph neural networks, and simultaneously predict architecture latencies on numerous hardware platforms.

The data mixture for large language model pre-training significantly impacts performance, yet how to determine an effective mixture remains unclear. We propose RegMix to automatically identify a high-performing data mixture by formulating it as a regression task. RegMix involves training a set of small models with diverse data mixtures and fitting a regression model to predict their performance given their respective mixtures. With the fitted regression model, we simulate the top-ranked mixture and use it to train a large-scale model with orders of magnitude more compute. To empirically validate RegMix, we train 512 models with 1M parameters for 1B tokens of different mixtures to fit the regression model and find the optimal mixture. Using this mixture we train a 1B parameter model for 25B tokens (i.e. 1000x larger and 25x longer) which we find performs best among 64 candidate 1B parameter models with other mixtures. Further, our method demonstrates superior performance compared to human selection and achieves results that match or surpass DoReMi, while utilizing only 10% of the compute budget. Our experiments also show that (1) Data mixtures significantly impact performance with single-task performance variations of up to 14.6%; (2) Web corpora rather than data perceived as high-quality like Wikipedia have the strongest positive correlation with downstream performance; (3) Domains interact in complex ways often contradicting common sense, thus automatic approaches like RegMix are needed; (4) Data mixture effects transcend scaling laws, and our approach captures the complexity by considering all domains together. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/regmix.

We explore the application of deep residual learning and dilated convolutions to the keyword spotting task, using the recently-released Google Speech Commands Dataset as our benchmark. Our best residual network (ResNet) implementation significantly outperforms Google's previous convolutional neural networks in terms of accuracy. By varying model depth and width, we can achieve compact models that also outperform previous small-footprint variants. To our knowledge, we are the first to examine these approaches for keyword spotting, and our results establish an open-source state-of-the-art reference to support the development of future speech-based interfaces.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to capture temporal dependencies. However, these methods can fail if the sample size is small and often require expensive retraining when the underlying data distribution changes. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP), a novel training-free conformal prediction method for time series. Our approach leverages the efficiency and representation learning capabilities of reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores. In particular, we compute similarity scores among reservoir states and use them to adaptively reweight the observed residuals at each step. With this approach, ResCP enables us to account for local temporal dynamics when modeling the error distribution without compromising computational scalability. We prove that, under reasonable assumptions, ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage, and we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness across diverse forecasting tasks.

As Learning-to-Rank (LTR) approaches primarily seek to improve ranking quality, their output scores are not scale-calibrated by design. This fundamentally limits LTR usage in score-sensitive applications. Though a simple multi-objective approach that combines a regression and a ranking objective can effectively learn scale-calibrated scores, we argue that the two objectives are not necessarily compatible, which makes the trade-off less ideal for either of them. In this paper, we propose a practical regression compatible ranking (RCR) approach that achieves a better trade-off, where the two ranking and regression components are proved to be mutually aligned. Although the same idea applies to ranking with both binary and graded relevance, we mainly focus on binary labels in this paper. We evaluate the proposed approach on several public LTR benchmarks and show that it consistently achieves either best or competitive result in terms of both regression and ranking metrics, and significantly improves the Pareto frontiers in the context of multi-objective optimization. Furthermore, we evaluated the proposed approach on YouTube Search and found that it not only improved the ranking quality of the production pCTR model, but also brought gains to the click prediction accuracy. The proposed approach has been successfully deployed in the YouTube production system.

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

Motivated by a wide variety of applications, ranging from stochastic optimization to dimension reduction through variable selection, the problem of estimating gradients accurately is of crucial importance in statistics and learning theory. We consider here the classic regression setup, where a real valued square integrable r.v. Y is to be predicted upon observing a (possibly high dimensional) random vector X by means of a predictive function f(X) as accurately as possible in the mean-squared sense and study a nearest-neighbour-based pointwise estimate of the gradient of the optimal predictive function, the regression function m(x)=E[Ymid X=x]. Under classic smoothness conditions combined with the assumption that the tails of Y-m(X) are sub-Gaussian, we prove nonasymptotic bounds improving upon those obtained for alternative estimation methods. Beyond the novel theoretical results established, several illustrative numerical experiments have been carried out. The latter provide strong empirical evidence that the estimation method proposed works very well for various statistical problems involving gradient estimation, namely dimensionality reduction, stochastic gradient descent optimization and quantifying disentanglement.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

We study the problem of single-image zero-shot 3D shape reconstruction. Recent works learn zero-shot shape reconstruction through generative modeling of 3D assets, but these models are computationally expensive at train and inference time. In contrast, the traditional approach to this problem is regression-based, where deterministic models are trained to directly regress the object shape. Such regression methods possess much higher computational efficiency than generative methods. This raises a natural question: is generative modeling necessary for high performance, or conversely, are regression-based approaches still competitive? To answer this, we design a strong regression-based model, called ZeroShape, based on the converging findings in this field and a novel insight. We also curate a large real-world evaluation benchmark, with objects from three different real-world 3D datasets. This evaluation benchmark is more diverse and an order of magnitude larger than what prior works use to quantitatively evaluate their models, aiming at reducing the evaluation variance in our field. We show that ZeroShape not only achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art methods, but also demonstrates significantly higher computational and data efficiency.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Flow-based generative models parameterize probability distributions through an invertible transformation and can be trained by maximum likelihood. Invertible residual networks provide a flexible family of transformations where only Lipschitz conditions rather than strict architectural constraints are needed for enforcing invertibility. However, prior work trained invertible residual networks for density estimation by relying on biased log-density estimates whose bias increased with the network's expressiveness. We give a tractable unbiased estimate of the log density using a "Russian roulette" estimator, and reduce the memory required during training by using an alternative infinite series for the gradient. Furthermore, we improve invertible residual blocks by proposing the use of activation functions that avoid derivative saturation and generalizing the Lipschitz condition to induced mixed norms. The resulting approach, called Residual Flows, achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation amongst flow-based models, and outperforms networks that use coupling blocks at joint generative and discriminative modeling.

Deep neural network is difficult to train and this predicament becomes worse as the depth increases. The essence of this problem exists in the magnitude of backpropagated errors that will result in gradient vanishing or exploding phenomenon. We show that a variant of regularizer which utilizes orthonormality among different filter banks can alleviate this problem. Moreover, we design a backward error modulation mechanism based on the quasi-isometry assumption between two consecutive parametric layers. Equipped with these two ingredients, we propose several novel optimization solutions that can be utilized for training a specific-structured (repetitively triple modules of Conv-BNReLU) extremely deep convolutional neural network (CNN) WITHOUT any shortcuts/ identity mappings from scratch. Experiments show that our proposed solutions can achieve distinct improvements for a 44-layer and a 110-layer plain networks on both the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Moreover, we can successfully train plain CNNs to match the performance of the residual counterparts. Besides, we propose new principles for designing network structure from the insights evoked by orthonormality. Combined with residual structure, we achieve comparative performance on the ImageNet dataset.

Symbolic regression (SR) is an area of interpretable machine learning that aims to identify mathematical expressions, often composed of simple functions, that best fit in a given set of covariates X and response y. In recent years, deep symbolic regression (DSR) has emerged as a popular method in the field by leveraging deep reinforcement learning to solve the complicated combinatorial search problem. In this work, we propose an alternative framework (GFN-SR) to approach SR with deep learning. We model the construction of an expression tree as traversing through a directed acyclic graph (DAG) so that GFlowNet can learn a stochastic policy to generate such trees sequentially. Enhanced with an adaptive reward baseline, our method is capable of generating a diverse set of best-fitting expressions. Notably, we observe that GFN-SR outperforms other SR algorithms in noisy data regimes, owing to its ability to learn a distribution of rewards over a space of candidate solutions.

This paper introduces an end-to-end residual network that operates entirely on the Poincar\'e ball model of hyperbolic space. Hyperbolic learning has recently shown great potential for visual understanding, but is currently only performed in the penultimate layer(s) of deep networks. All visual representations are still learned through standard Euclidean networks. In this paper we investigate how to learn hyperbolic representations of visual data directly from the pixel-level. We propose Poincar\'e ResNet, a hyperbolic counterpart of the celebrated residual network, starting from Poincar\'e 2D convolutions up to Poincar\'e residual connections. We identify three roadblocks for training convolutional networks entirely in hyperbolic space and propose a solution for each: (i) Current hyperbolic network initializations collapse to the origin, limiting their applicability in deeper networks. We provide an identity-based initialization that preserves norms over many layers. (ii) Residual networks rely heavily on batch normalization, which comes with expensive Fr\'echet mean calculations in hyperbolic space. We introduce Poincar\'e midpoint batch normalization as a faster and equally effective alternative. (iii) Due to the many intermediate operations in Poincar\'e layers, we lastly find that the computation graphs of deep learning libraries blow up, limiting our ability to train on deep hyperbolic networks. We provide manual backward derivations of core hyperbolic operations to maintain manageable computation graphs.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Recommender systems have seen significant advancements with the influence of deep learning and graph neural networks, particularly in capturing complex user-item relationships. However, these graph-based recommenders heavily depend on ID-based data, potentially disregarding valuable textual information associated with users and items, resulting in less informative learned representations. Moreover, the utilization of implicit feedback data introduces potential noise and bias, posing challenges for the effectiveness of user preference learning. While the integration of large language models (LLMs) into traditional ID-based recommenders has gained attention, challenges such as scalability issues, limitations in text-only reliance, and prompt input constraints need to be addressed for effective implementation in practical recommender systems. To address these challenges, we propose a model-agnostic framework RLMRec that aims to enhance existing recommenders with LLM-empowered representation learning. It proposes a recommendation paradigm that integrates representation learning with LLMs to capture intricate semantic aspects of user behaviors and preferences. RLMRec incorporates auxiliary textual signals, develops a user/item profiling paradigm empowered by LLMs, and aligns the semantic space of LLMs with the representation space of collaborative relational signals through a cross-view alignment framework. This work further establish a theoretical foundation demonstrating that incorporating textual signals through mutual information maximization enhances the quality of representations. In our evaluation, we integrate RLMRec with state-of-the-art recommender models, while also analyzing its efficiency and robustness to noise data. Our implementation codes are available at https://github.com/HKUDS/RLMRec.

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in reality, such approaches can be sensitive to estimation error and yield unstable intervals.~Here, we circumvent the challenges by converting regression to a classification problem and then use CP for classification to obtain CP sets for regression.~To preserve the ordering of the continuous-output space, we design a new loss function and make necessary modifications to the CP classification techniques.~Empirical results on many benchmarks shows that this simple approach gives surprisingly good results on many practical problems.

Automated model selection is often proposed to users to choose which machine learning model (or method) to apply to a given regression task. In this paper, we show that combining different regression models can yield better results than selecting a single ('best') regression model, and outline an efficient method that obtains optimally weighted convex linear combination from a heterogeneous set of regression models. More specifically, in this paper, a heuristic weight optimization, used in a preceding conference paper, is replaced by an exact optimization algorithm using convex quadratic programming. We prove convexity of the quadratic programming formulation for the straightforward formulation and for a formulation with weighted data points. The novel weight optimization is not only (more) exact but also more efficient. The methods we develop in this paper are implemented and made available via github-open source. They can be executed on commonly available hardware and offer a transparent and easy to interpret interface. The results indicate that the approach outperforms model selection methods on a range of data sets, including data sets with mixed variable type from drug discovery applications.

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based on backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

The acquisition of labels for supervised learning can be expensive. To improve the sample efficiency of neural network regression, we study active learning methods that adaptively select batches of unlabeled data for labeling. We present a framework for constructing such methods out of (network-dependent) base kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods. Our framework encompasses many existing Bayesian methods based on Gaussian process approximations of neural networks as well as non-Bayesian methods. Additionally, we propose to replace the commonly used last-layer features with sketched finite-width neural tangent kernels and to combine them with a novel clustering method. To evaluate different methods, we introduce an open-source benchmark consisting of 15 large tabular regression data sets. Our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art on our benchmark, scales to large data sets, and works out-of-the-box without adjusting the network architecture or training code. We provide open-source code that includes efficient implementations of all kernels, kernel transformations, and selection methods, and can be used for reproducing our results.

In this paper, we present a regression-based pose recognition method using cascade Transformers. One way to categorize the existing approaches in this domain is to separate them into 1). heatmap-based and 2). regression-based. In general, heatmap-based methods achieve higher accuracy but are subject to various heuristic designs (not end-to-end mostly), whereas regression-based approaches attain relatively lower accuracy but they have less intermediate non-differentiable steps. Here we utilize the encoder-decoder structure in Transformers to perform regression-based person and keypoint detection that is general-purpose and requires less heuristic design compared with the existing approaches. We demonstrate the keypoint hypothesis (query) refinement process across different self-attention layers to reveal the recursive self-attention mechanism in Transformers. In the experiments, we report competitive results for pose recognition when compared with the competing regression-based methods.

Transformers can capture long-range dependencies using self-attention, allowing tokens to attend to all others directly. However, stacking multiple attention layers leads to attention concentration. One natural way to address this issue is to use cross-layer attention, allowing information from earlier layers to be directly accessible to later layers. However, this approach is computationally expensive. To address this problem, we propose Transformer with residual value (ResFormer) which approximates cross-layer attention through adding a residual connection from the values of the the first layer to all subsequent layers. Based on this method, one variant is the Transformer with single layer value (SVFormer), where all layers share the same value embedding from first layer, reducing the KV cache by nearly 50%. Comprehensive empirical evidence demonstrates that ResFormer mitigates attention concentration problem in deeper layers and enhances representation across most layers, outperforming the vanilla Transformer, DenseFormer, and NeuTRENO in training error as well as downstream tasks. SVFormer trains significantly faster than the vanilla Transformer and performs better than other methods like GQA and CLA, with performance influenced by sequence length and cumulative learning rate.

Information retrieval systems are crucial for enabling effective access to large document collections. Recent approaches have leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance retrieval performance through query augmentation, but often rely on expensive supervised learning or distillation techniques that require significant computational resources and hand-labeled data. We introduce DeepRetrieval, a reinforcement learning (RL) approach that trains LLMs for query generation through trial and error without supervised data (reference query). Using retrieval metrics as rewards, our system generates queries that maximize retrieval performance. DeepRetrieval outperforms leading methods on literature search with 65.07% (vs. previous SOTA 24.68%) recall for publication search and 63.18% (vs. previous SOTA 32.11%) recall for trial search using real-world search engines. DeepRetrieval also dominates in evidence-seeking retrieval, classic information retrieval and SQL database search. With only 3B parameters, it outperforms industry-leading models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.5-Sonnet on 11/13 datasets. These results demonstrate that our RL approach offers a more efficient and effective paradigm for information retrieval. Our data and code are available at: https://github.com/pat-jj/DeepRetrieval.

We consider the problem of linear estimation, and establish an extension of the Gauss-Markov theorem, in which the bias operator is allowed to be non-zero but bounded with respect to a matrix norm of Schatten type. We derive simple and explicit formulas for the optimal estimator in the cases of Nuclear and Spectral norms (with the Frobenius case recovering ridge regression). Additionally, we analytically derive the generalization error in multiple random matrix ensembles, and compare with Ridge regression. Finally, we conduct an extensive simulation study, in which we show that the cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors can outperform Ridge in several circumstances.

Deep residual networks (ResNets) have demonstrated outstanding success in computer vision tasks, attributed to their ability to maintain gradient flow through deep architectures. Simultaneously, controlling the Lipschitz constant in neural networks has emerged as an essential area of research to enhance adversarial robustness and network certifiability. This paper presents a rigorous approach to the general design of L-Lipschitz deep residual networks using a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) framework. Initially, the ResNet architecture was reformulated as a cyclic tridiagonal LMI, and closed-form constraints on network parameters were derived to ensure L-Lipschitz continuity; however, using a new LDL^top decomposition approach for certifying LMI feasibility, we extend the construction of L-Lipchitz networks to any other nonlinear architecture. Our contributions include a provable parameterization methodology for constructing Lipschitz-constrained residual networks and other hierarchical architectures. Cholesky decomposition is also used for efficient parameterization. These findings enable robust network designs applicable to adversarial robustness, certified training, and control systems. The LDL^top formulation is shown to be a tight relaxation of the SDP-based network, maintaining full expressiveness and achieving 3\%-13\% accuracy gains over SLL Layers on 121 UCI data sets.

We present Recurrent Fitting (ReFit), a neural network architecture for single-image, parametric 3D human reconstruction. ReFit learns a feedback-update loop that mirrors the strategy of solving an inverse problem through optimization. At each iterative step, it reprojects keypoints from the human model to feature maps to query feedback, and uses a recurrent-based updater to adjust the model to fit the image better. Because ReFit encodes strong knowledge of the inverse problem, it is faster to train than previous regression models. At the same time, ReFit improves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks. Moreover, ReFit applies to other optimization settings, such as multi-view fitting and single-view shape fitting. Project website: https://yufu-wang.github.io/refit_humans/

Sparsity in the structure of Neural Networks can lead to less energy consumption, less memory usage, faster computation times on convenient hardware, and automated machine learning. If sparsity gives rise to certain kinds of structure, it can explain automatically obtained features during learning. We provide insights into experiments in which we show how sparsity can be achieved through prior initialization, pruning, and during learning, and answer questions on the relationship between the structure of Neural Networks and their performance. This includes the first work of inducing priors from network theory into Recurrent Neural Networks and an architectural performance prediction during a Neural Architecture Search. Within our experiments, we show how magnitude class blinded pruning achieves 97.5% on MNIST with 80% compression and re-training, which is 0.5 points more than without compression, that magnitude class uniform pruning is significantly inferior to it and how a genetic search enhanced with performance prediction achieves 82.4% on CIFAR10. Further, performance prediction for Recurrent Networks learning the Reber grammar shows an R^2 of up to 0.81 given only structural information.

This paper revisits datasets and evaluation criteria for Symbolic Regression, a task of expressing given data using mathematical equations, specifically focused on its potential for scientific discovery. Focused on a set of formulas used in the existing datasets based on Feynman Lectures on Physics, we recreate 120 datasets to discuss the performance of symbolic regression for scientific discovery (SRSD). For each of the 120 SRSD datasets, we carefully review the properties of the formula and its variables to design reasonably realistic sampling range of values so that our new SRSD datasets can be used for evaluating the potential of SRSD such as whether or not an SR method can (re)discover physical laws from such datasets. As an evaluation metric, we also propose to use normalized edit distances between a predicted equation and the ground-truth equation trees. While existing metrics are either binary or errors between the target values and an SR model's predicted values for a given input, normalized edit distances evaluate a sort of similarity between the ground-truth and predicted equation trees. We have conducted experiments on our new SRSD datasets using five state-of-the-art SR methods in SRBench and a simple baseline based on a recent Transformer architecture. The results show that we provide a more realistic performance evaluation and open up a new machine learning-based approach for scientific discovery. Our datasets and code repository are publicly available.

The technique of data augmentation (DA) is often used in machine learning for regularization purposes to better generalize under i.i.d. settings. In this work, we present a unifying framework with topics in causal inference to make a case for the use of DA beyond just the i.i.d. setting, but for generalization across interventions as well. Specifically, we argue that when the outcome generating mechanism is invariant to our choice of DA, then such augmentations can effectively be thought of as interventions on the treatment generating mechanism itself. This can potentially help to reduce bias in causal effect estimation arising from hidden confounders. In the presence of such unobserved confounding we typically make use of instrumental variables (IVs) -- sources of treatment randomization that are conditionally independent of the outcome. However, IVs may not be as readily available as DA for many applications, which is the main motivation behind this work. By appropriately regularizing IV based estimators, we introduce the concept of IV-like (IVL) regression for mitigating confounding bias and improving predictive performance across interventions even when certain IV properties are relaxed. Finally, we cast parameterized DA as an IVL regression problem and show that when used in composition can simulate a worst-case application of such DA, further improving performance on causal estimation and generalization tasks beyond what simple DA may offer. This is shown both theoretically for the population case and via simulation experiments for the finite sample case using a simple linear example. We also present real data experiments to support our case.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Score-based generative modeling, informally referred to as diffusion models, continue to grow in popularity across several important domains and tasks. While they provide high-quality and diverse samples from empirical distributions, important questions remain on the reliability and trustworthiness of these sampling procedures for their responsible use in critical scenarios. Conformal prediction is a modern tool to construct finite-sample, distribution-free uncertainty guarantees for any black-box predictor. In this work, we focus on image-to-image regression tasks and we present a generalization of the Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets (RCPS) procedure, that we term K-RCPS, which allows to (i) provide entrywise calibrated intervals for future samples of any diffusion model, and (ii) control a certain notion of risk with respect to a ground truth image with minimal mean interval length. Differently from existing conformal risk control procedures, ours relies on a novel convex optimization approach that allows for multidimensional risk control while provably minimizing the mean interval length. We illustrate our approach on two real-world image denoising problems: on natural images of faces as well as on computed tomography (CT) scans of the abdomen, demonstrating state of the art performance.