by rookies and cream » Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:59 am AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.What are your projections for Timmy? Curious how they compare to the 4 you have above him.
by dannahann » Wed Dec 24, 2008 9:02 am AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.I'm glad I'm not the only one who also moved him down a bit. I did so for the same concerns AquaMan specifys. Timmy is a tremendous talent but he carries a little more risk than the guys I placed above him. I tend to be conservative in taking a pitcher near the top of my draft. I place Lincecum 6th as I see the 08 workload possibly costing a few starts and he was fortunate to win so many on that team. R&C asked for projections as to why TL might be lower so I'll provide mine with my top 10:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #
by Philliebuster » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:51 am I'm in line with this list and reasoning on having Lince a bit lower. I'd probably move CC below Peavy and Lince, other than that...looking good.dannahann wrote:AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.I'm glad I'm not the only one who also moved him down a bit. I did so for the same concerns AquaMan specifys. Timmy is a tremendous talent but he carries a little more risk than the guys I placed above him. I tend to be conservative in taking a pitcher near the top of my draft. I place Lincecum 6th as I see the 08 workload possibly costing a few starts and he was fortunate to win so many on that team. R&C asked for projections as to why TL might be lower so I'll provide mine with my top 10:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #
by RedSoxNation04 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:29 am Lincecum, Tim	Santana, Johan	Sabathia, CCWebb, BrandonHamels, Cole	Peavy, Jake	Halladay, Roy	Haren, Dan	Billingsley, ChadHernandez, Felix	Haren, Bills and Felix are a toss up in the last three spots. I think Felix could put it all together this year and depending on how Bill's injury plays out, he could easily go ahead of Haren in my book but I'll leave them this way for now.Interestingly enough, FantasyBaseball365.com published their top 50 SP's the other day...very high on Lackey and Ervin Santana. Having owned Lackey last year, I'm wary of him in '09 and definitely will not draft him ahead of any of my top 10 listed here. Erv is an interesting case if he can keep his head on straight and his pitches in the strike zone.http://fantasybaseball365.wordpress.com ... -rankings/
by Philliebuster » Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:17 pm I really don't see with the track record how anyone could take Lince over Johan. Johan is as sure a bet as you can get. Lince plays for the Giants, the Mets have greatly improved their bullpen. Of course this has all been said already. The only way I could see it possibly would be in a long term keeper league.
by Kingctb27 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:32 pm PPL, don't draft any of these "top ten" guys unless they drop past the 7th round or so. You can find similar or better value by taking high upside guys like Gallardo, Morrow, Hughes, Buchholz, and so forth in later rounds.
by ILoveBush » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:03 pm I'm not saying Greinke is a top 10 pitcher. But if Oswalt is part of the discussion, then you have to give some consideration to Zack. He will be an ace next year and will hopefully be the first pitcher I draft.
by Snakes Gould » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:38 pm dannahann wrote:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #why wouldnt peavy be #2? he beats cole, webb, and cc in every category except for 2 wins by your projections. you cant be saying that 2 wins is worth that difference, can you? same thing applies to how you have halladay ranked. i could get those numbers from a free agent pickup in the middle of the season. you only have 2 pitchers with 200+ k's in your top 10. i doubt that will happen.jot me down as one of the guys who will not be taking oswalt as my staff ace.
by Guzman24 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:45 am 1. Johan2. Lincecum3. CC4. Webb5. Hamels6. Peavy7. Halladay8. Billingsley9. Haren10. Lackey
by rookies and cream » Wed Dec 24, 2008 12:59 am AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.What are your projections for Timmy? Curious how they compare to the 4 you have above him.
by dannahann » Wed Dec 24, 2008 9:02 am AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.I'm glad I'm not the only one who also moved him down a bit. I did so for the same concerns AquaMan specifys. Timmy is a tremendous talent but he carries a little more risk than the guys I placed above him. I tend to be conservative in taking a pitcher near the top of my draft. I place Lincecum 6th as I see the 08 workload possibly costing a few starts and he was fortunate to win so many on that team. R&C asked for projections as to why TL might be lower so I'll provide mine with my top 10:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #
by Philliebuster » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:51 am I'm in line with this list and reasoning on having Lince a bit lower. I'd probably move CC below Peavy and Lince, other than that...looking good.dannahann wrote:AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season. 2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.I'm glad I'm not the only one who also moved him down a bit. I did so for the same concerns AquaMan specifys. Timmy is
 a tremendous talent but he carries a little more risk than the guys I placed above him. I tend to be conservative in taking a pitcher near the top of my draft. I place Lincecum 6th as I see the 08 workload possibly costing a few starts and he was fortunate to win so many on that team. R&C asked for projections as to why TL might be lower so I'll provide mine with my top 10:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #
by RedSoxNation04 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 11:29 am Lincecum, Tim	Santana, Johan	Sabathia, CCWebb, BrandonHamels, Cole	Peavy, Jake	Halladay, Roy	Haren, Dan	Billingsley, ChadHernandez, Felix	Haren, Bills and Felix are a toss up in the last three spots. I think Felix could put it all together this year and depending on how Bill's injury plays out, he could easily go ahead of Haren in my book but I'll leave them this way for now.Interestingly enough, FantasyBaseball365.com published their top 50 SP's the other day...very high on Lackey and Ervin Santana. Having owned Lackey last year, I'm wary of him in '09 and definitely will not draft him ahead of any of my top 10 listed here. Erv is an interesting case if he can keep his head on straight and his pitches in the strike zone.http://fantasybaseball365.wordpress.com ... -rankings/
by Philliebuster » Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:17 pm I really don't see with the track record how anyone could take Lince over Johan. Johan is as sure a bet as you can get. Lince plays for the Giants, the Mets have greatly improved their bullpen. Of course this has all been said already. The only way I could see it possibly would be in a long term keeper league.
by Kingctb27 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:32 pm PPL, don't draft any of these "top ten" guys unless they drop past the 7th round or so. You can find similar or better value by taking high upside guys like Gallardo, Morrow, Hughes, Buchholz, and so forth in later rounds.
by ILoveBush » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:03 pm I'm not saying Greinke is a top 10 pitcher. But if Oswalt is part of the discussion, then you have to give some consideration to Zack. He will be an ace next year and will hopefully be the first pitcher I draft.
by Snakes Gould » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:38 pm dannahann wrote:1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15 2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.203 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here) 4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.225 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14 6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.267 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21 8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23 10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24*edited to include Haren's rank #why wouldnt peavy be #2? he beats cole, webb, and cc in every category except for 2 wins by your projections. you cant be saying that 2 wins is worth that difference, can you? same thing applies to how you have halladay ranked. i could get those numbers from a free agent pickup in the middle of the season. you only have 2 pitchers with 200+ k's in your top 10. i doubt that will happen.jot me down as one of the guys who will not be taking oswalt as my staff ace.
by Guzman24 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 4:45 am 1. Johan2. Lincecum3. CC4. Webb5. Hamels6. Peavy7. Halladay8. Billingsley9. Haren10. Lackey