Anonymous January 20, 2013 at 9:16 PM
This post proves that there will not be much snow for most of us. 1-4 is nothing and most of that will blow away. The snow drought unfortunatley will continue for Rochester.
Dude this is just for tonight into tomorrow. Snow chances will exist all week long. And what the h#ll are you talking about a "snow drought" for? It snowed a good bit three nights ago, where have you been?
Normal snowfall for Rochester is around 50 inches right now. We have had 29, well below normal.
This is Rochester, we could easily make up a 21 inch deficit in a short span of time. I'm not claiming to know that we will for sure, just saying it's possible so keep your chin up.
Jo-Sef January 20, 2013 at 9:52 PM
That band is impressive to look at, stretching all the way to Vermont/Mass
Caledonia January 20, 2013 at 11:58 PM
The track and intensity for the Friday storm isn't settled yet. I'd wait another 36-48 hours before getting too sure of anything.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 7:07 AM
Very little snow will fall this week for Rochester. Not looking good for snow lovers. At least they will be able to make snow at the ski resorts.
The minor system at the end of the week is also trending further south and looks to miss us.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 7:15 AM
Google inverted trough then look at the model again.
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 7:54 AM
Scott mentioned in his forcast last night that next week could be reaching 50 Again?? So glad I have my snowmobiles on Craigslist with a couple of bites. I may take up on their offers.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 11:07 AM
Throwing in the towel after 1.5 iffy winters?
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 9:08 AM
Only about 1/2" of snow fell last night in total. Areas east of here...Hannibal, Fulton...got lots of snow. Someone in Hannibal claimed zero visibility for several hours last night.
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 9:14 AM
This just in - areas north and west as well as north and east of Syracuse got about 2 feet of snow last night.
50 next week? i didn't hear any mention of that at 10pm from scott?
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Yes, I had my TV on and I do believe it was shortly before 11 when he did a weather update, I heard him say next week could be going into the 50's. Anyone see that happening??
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:31 PM
We do know that can happen. No doubt we get a warm period next week. I was thinking high 30's low 40's for a few days. But I didn't go to school and don't get paid to forecast so I most certainly go with Scott if he said that.
This as usual for LES is a bust! The storm at the end of the week nothing. Get ready for spring next week as I have said all along. It is nice out right now. Snow mongers forget it the winter is done very similar to last year.
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 10:35 AM
It is supposed to warm up for a couple of days next week, but nothing too extreme.
It will be a normal Winter through at least Feb.
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:36 PM
I think the first 7-10 days of February will get more active with the Southern stream getting more involved.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 12:02 PM
It will warm up next week because a storm will go West. I wonder if we will actually get below the snow we received last year.
Andrew January 21, 2013 at 12:18 PM
Not sure about the LES because very tough to call but do think the city will get hit tomorrow and tomorrow night with some good LES. However, i still believe that the storm late in the week brings us 8-10 inches of snow based on the trends and current GFS. That is how I see it but I am no expert.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 12:47 PM
I find it amazing how there can still be any talk about spring when we're forecasted to not get above the mid 20's for at least a week. There might be an interruption in the cold pattern for a day or two next week, but other than that we're stuck in the freezer for the foreseeable future. And keep in mind that the models often create breaks in the pattern that don't come to fruition. Remember when the late week storm was supposed to be a storm to our west that brought rain? Well look what happened. And I remember numerous times in 2010-11 where the cold pattern initially looked to break with a storm to our west, only for the storm to end up way east instead. That said, brief interruptions in the prevailing pattern happen all the time, and are by no means an indicator of spring's arrival. And I wouldn't be surprised if numerous such brief interruptions happened over the next several weeks.
As for snow chances, starting tonight metro Rochester should get in on some of the action, and I feel like most areas north of the Thruway will have at least six inches by Thursday evening. The widespread storm after that still does not look too impressive (it never did) but we still appear in line for a moderate snowfall regionwide. After that, back into the freezer with more lake effect chances.
All that can be said with any confidence about our final snow tally is we'll likely finish below average. My speculative guess however is that we'll get substantially more than last season, though still below average.
News 8 Weather January 21, 2013 at 12:54 PM
We do have a better shot at getting some LES starting tonight through most of Wednesday compared to last night when our wind direction was basically west, and the band funneled right into Cayuga and Oswego Counties. Steering wind and surface winds will be more NW during the period, which is much better for ROC, but that favors more multi-bands that are less intense.
Scott what do you think about the Friday storm potential?
I think that was John bro. Scott always puts his name at the end when he posts.
Sorry Andrew that storm at end of the week going south and east. Look at the latest Euro please. Spring is here. I have not seen a snowflake yet from the lake effect snow everyone was pumping up all weekend.
Notice how much difference there is between the Euro and the GFS. That difference means that there is little room to draw conclusions. Read News 8 Weather's post, starting tonight is when metro Rochester should see a better opportunity for lake effect. This event is supposed to last through Thursday, it's only Monday afternoon.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ003
If that's your idea of spring then I'm surprised you're sober enough to figure out your keyboard.
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Spring is here? Just because it is not snowing does not mean spring is here...it's a balmy 20 degrees here in upstate NY @@
Pretty quiet on the blog tells me not much confidence in winter weather this week hitting Rochester. Temps spiking next week again with no storm activity in sight from the latest data. our snow totals will be well below average this winter. Much like last winter as I have been stating on this blog for the past few weeks but get called a troll.
I'm guessing you're not aware that most adults work from 8 to 4. I'm also guessing that you sit here all day refreshing the page looking for people to troll.
Much like last winter eh?
Doesn't look like last winter to me. Expect forecasts similar to this through the first week of February.
No storm activity in sight eh?
"CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION."
Oh wait I forgot, anyone who doesn't agree with you is just a bullsh###er.
Weatherguy January 21, 2013 at 3:26 PM
Storm at the end of the week looks a little more promising. Even if we only get a general 3-6", I won't complain. Next weeks storm definitely bears watching as well....
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:14 PM
You thinking 3-6 for greater Rochester? I was figuring 3-6 South of Geneseo. I won't complain about 3-6 either.
FINALLY a Lake Effect Snow Watch for the shoreline. FINALLY.
Snowluver January 21, 2013 at 4:05 PM
Can we hear what Scott is thinking about LES for Monroe County and the storm at the end of the week?
Where has John been? Is he on vacation?
Anyone know what the latest GFS run showed? Did it stay north or go south like the Euro?
Jo-Sef January 21, 2013 at 5:15 PM
Best chances for LES for the metro are Tuesday into Wednesday. The winds and temps will be good for significant multiband but drier air also begins working in Tuesday night. Both that and the storm at the end of the week are a wait and see situation. Euro and GFS aren't completely in agreement - GFS looks better. I don't see that trough getting as far South as the Euro is suggesting but I (like Andrew) am not an expert.
4-6 of fake fluff will fall. Not enough to snowmobile. That will shrink to about 2 inches at most since it is mostly air with no water content. NO BIG DEAL for Rochester.
Hamlin Plower January 21, 2013 at 8:02 PM
Lake snow getting ready to set up and move into North Hamlin. RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. We have got 2-3 so far last night and this afternoon, with much more snow to come this week.
-8 wind chill for my walk to class tomorrow morning. Not looking forward to that O__o fortunately it's a rather short walk. Still better than walking in high heat and humidity, and hopefully we'll have a little snow on the ground to compensate.
M in Hilton January 21, 2013 at 10:16 PM
So weird how lake snow works! Hamlin said he got 2-3 so far. I'm in Hilton, and we haven't got any. That's 5 miles away!
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 12:53 AM
Not a cloud in the sky in Macedon. Green grass and not even a flurry while other areas around Lake Erie are going to get 1-3 ft of fluff. A little jealous I have to say.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:23 AM
Lake effect snow warnings in place for Nothern Monroe and Wayne counties. This means that areas north of route 104 will get a good dumping of lake fluff while the rest of us south of route 104 will watch.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:28 AM
Oh how I would love to be in the Tug Hill right now. They are getting 2-4 inches per hour right now with snow totals of 3-4 ft by tomorrow. Wow!!!
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 6:09 AM
Wow! Their just getting hammered out there near Oswego right now. All we need is for that band to shift south on top of us! :)
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 7:12 AM
i live in oswego..we currently have 8 inches from the snow last night...the band is oscillating just to the northeast of us so there has been a lull in the action but its expected to shift south here by mid morning and were expected another foot
Another joke snow and cold event for Rochester. Most got nothing and will get nothing as usual. Strom Friday is nothing. The winter as stated is a joke and we might in most areas get less snow than last winter. The prediction for March/April warm! Time is running out snow mongers enjoy the early spring. Funny how one weather station has flurries for most today and tonight whiule Stacey had a 5-10 inch prediction for all north of the thruway. With lake effect they should just say it may snow somewhere hard somewhere not ha ha.
Charles Wachal January 22, 2013 at 7:33 AM
um.... where are you guys getting joke snow storm from... NWS is now forecasting 10-14 inches of snow today and another 7-11 inches tonight for me up here in Ontario
Yeah Charles you and the 27 other people up by the lakeshore are getting a lot of snow. The Rochester metro where most people live is getting squat.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:57 PM
The combined population of Greece, Irondequoit, Webster, Ontario, Williamson and Sodus is about 160,000.
David January 22, 2013 at 7:55 AM
Rochester metro will get in on it. I think a lot of Monroe will get on it. Obviously north of thruway, more..... Band is already coming south.... With the crazy ratios, were gonna get pounded, then a little storm area wide Friday....
Only North of Route 104 will get good snow but not 10-14 and 7-11. Our local mets are saying 6-12 in total from the whole event with the highest being North of 104.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:56 PM
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 4:58 PM
Sorry, this reply was intended for another post.
David January 22, 2013 at 8:33 AM
No snow on the ground as of yet in my neighborhood, but if you look upstream on radar you can see the wind beginning to veer to the northwest. NWS point-and-click calls for 5-10 inches of snow today through tomorrow at my house. The discussion text says this:
"THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO ROCHESTER AND ITS NORTHERN SUBURBS TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING."
Holy shroom addiction is Troll Anon really still yammering about an early spring? The wind chill at the airport is -11 and I'm pretty sure the rest of the region is about the same save for the immediate lake shore. Plus the forecast looks bitter until Friday with no real mild air in sight. Talking about spring at this point is like talking about a ski trip in the middle of a heat wave.
When will the sun be back? I've been cooped up for so long! Will I ever be able to go out? ROCWhine
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 9:51 AM
Nice Georgian Bay connection happening :)
The point is Northern Suburbs of Rochester. North of 104 not including the city of Rochester. The band is not even moving South which the NWS stated might happen.
There will be nothing in the city so forget it. Also btw that Friday storm forget that too going south and east. Just jump on the spring weather ride it is nice.
Oh yeah, a totally spring-like 12 degrees right now, and an even more spring-like 13 tomorrow. But never fear, next week might be downright balmy with highs in the 20's/low 30's. Did anyone ever tell you that the F on your thermometer stands for Fahrenheit?
News 8 Weather January 22, 2013 at 11:56 AM
The band is still hanging over the lake and clipping northwestern Monroe County, while the norther 3rd of Orleans county has been getting snow almost all morning. Weather service went crazy with numbers this morning. I don't see those numbers happening in ROC unless that band that sets up overnight sets up over ROC. Assuming that band drops south, as we're expecting, we'll get a quick 2-5" this afternoon/evening, then wherever a single band (with a connection to Georgian Bay?) sets up will get the good stuff overnight. We're going with a GENERAL 5-10" north of the Thruway by Wednesday afternoon, and 2-5" south. Obviously we all know the nature of lake effect, and not everybody north of the Thruway will get that 5-10" Some spots get more, some get less. I'm guessing Scott will probably tweak numbers this afternoon when he gets in if he sees the need. In the meantime, we watch, and wait!
I am not sure, but it looks like that band across the Southern Shore of Lake Ontario is breaking down.
News 8 Weather January 22, 2013 at 12:18 PM
The intensity of the band falls back a little bit as the wind shifts more out of the northwest, which is what will push it onshore. You just don't have that long fetch over the whole length of the lake, and it adds a little more shear. So we won't get the 2-4"+/hour snowfall rates that they got in Oswego County this morning, but should still get some decent snowfall rates. Also, the VERY cold air will give us a high fluff factor.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 12:28 PM
NWS did go crazy with those numbers. I don't think I'll be seeing much of anything up here by highland park until the sun goes down. Waiting...
The NWS always always over-forecasts lake effect. 2-5 inches is nothing. Good to whiten the ground and that is it. It is fake fluff full of air so it will be 1 inch on the ground once it compresses.
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 1:06 PM
Not always. Remember last February when they forecasted advisory criteria snows for a lake effect event? We got over a foot. The theme is that lake effect is very tough to predict, sometimes the forecast is too high and other times it's too low. That said, the NWS is clearly overdoing it this time. It's really tough to see anything near the amounts in the warning text verifying unless you live near the lake from Webster east. As for the 2-5 inches, that's for south of the thruway. John predicted 5-10 inches in general north of the thruway, and last I checked he doesn't work for the NWS.
I am not an expert but it looks like the band is shifting more north than south. I just do not see 5-10. We will see though.
FROM THE NWS- RECENT UPDATE:
HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOW BAND BASED ON BOTH RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WHICH SHOW THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BAND ONLY SLOWLY
NUDGING SOUTHWARD AND STILL LARGELY HUNG UP OVER OSWEGO AND
EXTREME NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. WHILE WE STILL EXPECT THIS BAND TO
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO ENTIRE NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY STRIP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3 inches per hour...it's been a long time since I've personally witnessed snowfall rates that high. I'd bet there's some very occasional thunder and lightning in the most intense part of that band.
Some areas like Fulton are getting 5 inches per hour. That is amazing. Very Very jealous.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:52 PM
37 inches + as of noon in the Pulaski area.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 1:22 PM
I wonder how Hamlin's doing, it seems like it's been pretty steady there. It's gotta be nice to get more work/more money every time it snows.
I wonder when that band will drift south again it keeps drifting more and more north
Folks please understand this band is not coming to the metro area or any of those suburbs. This lake effect is a joke it impacts very small amounts of people. Hate it.
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:12 PM
I wish you would leave your comments to yourself.
Friday's storm history, bright sun now, TWC had 3 month trends,WARM in March and warming up next week. Sounds like an early spring to me. I guess the troll is not that far off base is she. Move on people do not sit by you radar and wait for the snow band to drop south. It is over no snow for you! The rest of the winter will see less snow and above average temperatures. In fact we may get less snow this winter than last year.
TWC is to meteorology what MTV is to music. People stopped taking them seriously years ago. Besides, didn't their winter outlook last season call for a cold winter?
Read Joe Lundberg's blog from today:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/the-cold-and-th/4655678
I doubt you have the attention span to do that so I'll just quote the important bit:
"Late in the weekend, though, a system coming out of the southern Plains will push the arctic air aside a little more forcefully going into next week. It'll lead to a three-day reprieve from the bitter cold, but that may be it. Looking even farther ahead, they might want to find some way of keeping the den of Phil artificially warm. Another blast of bitter arctic air may be waiting in the wings by Groundhog Day."
This is coming from a man who is a big time warm-lover. He doesn't pander to snow enthusiasts and he calls it like he sees it. And he sees only three days of rest from the bitter cold. Additionally, Don Paul over at WIVB in Buffalo also sees colder than average temps returning after a TEMPORARY warmup. He is a forecasting veteran and one of the best there is. So you can put that early spring nonsense away for the next few weeks at least.
As for the lake effect, the NWS expects the band to drop south towards metro Rochester by the evening hours. Its southward progression has been slower than expected, but it should still sag south at some point later today and into the evening. And as for the storm later this week, please point us to the forecast that calls for bright sun on Friday, because I can't find one.
Still waiting for that data supporting an early spring...weren't our tulips supposed to be in full bloom by now according to you?
The troll is a woman??
Assuming such simple creatures can have a gender then apparently yes.
David January 22, 2013 at 3:10 PM
To drop, or not to drop, that is the question...
D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-DROP THE BAND
Skrillex anyone?
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:18 PM
Seems like Scott likes the idea of 5-10 inches north of the Thruway based on his latest FB post.
Does anyone know if the mean troll is right about Friday? Is that storm now nothing here because it is going south. Thougth some said this would be a moderate snowfall. Think one blogger said the other day we would get 8 inches?
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:46 PM
We won't know who is right until the storm actually happens. All we know is that most forecasts have at least likely chances for snow out of it in our region, of the moderate variety. 8 inches may happen for someone, but that someone is not us.
Caledonia January 22, 2013 at 3:50 PM
3-5 seems more realistic to me.
David January 22, 2013 at 3:44 PM
The band is filling in South. Notice the wind sheer and radar south of Toronto, over the lake... Shift is FINALLY happening
Hamlin Plower January 22, 2013 at 4:17 PM
Home for quick dinner break. Snowed all day, Moderate to heavy in northern half of Hamlin, while the sun shined on the southern half of Hamlin. Many whiteouts and some drifting. Next band coming in will give us heavy accumulations in Hamlin tonight. It might snow all week in North Hamlin where I plow and live. VERY WINTERY HERE FOR SURE!!!!
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 4:56 PM
I'm obviously moving to North Hamlin. My grandfather grew up in Walker. Wish I lived there right now!
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 5:00 PM
No snow here yet, but skies just to the north look very ominous. Areas north of Syracuse measuring snow in feet today.
I am in Wolcott right now no snow yet but the entire sky is now cloudy with very dark clouds to our north... the sun was out earlier today for most of the day but has since the sky is 100% cloudy
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 5:27 PM
Any updates from Scott?
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:47 PM
Fulton, North of Syracuse has been reporting HEAVT SNOW for the last 8 hours. I believe they will close in on 4 ft which will compact to 1 ft when it settles. Macedon has clear skies and green grass.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:50 PM
The band is now moving South but will weaken significantly before it hits metro Rochester.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:56 PM
Occasional flurries and lake snow. Accumulation ranging from 3-6" north of Rt. 104. Minimal accumulation south of Rt. 104.
Channel 13 has by far the lowest accumulation forecast. Scott has 6-10 near the lake with 5-8 generally north of the Thruway (forgive me if he changed anything for the TV broadcast, haven't gotten around to seeing it yet and this was taken off FB earlier). Even Mr. Doomsday over at Channel 10 has 4-8 across the metro with up to a foot near the lake.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 6:22 PM
Since miscalculating the arrival of the first cold air (12/10 - it arrived on 12/21), he has actually been pretty accurate this winter.
Looks like a big warmup next week so whatever snow get over the next few days will be it for January.
I'm not sure the warmup next week will be quite as pronounced as advertised. The prevailing pattern over the next few weeks is a cold one, and I've noticed that the prevailing pattern can be stubborn to yield in the face of interrupting forces. This seems to happen for prevailing warm patterns too, where cold interruptions end up shorter and less cold than advertised. Whatever moderation we see should only last three days at the most, as there is strong agreement amongst the various ensembles that the pattern will return to a state similar to now for the first week of February.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 8:35 PM
Agreed. Remember the models were all calling for a rain to snow event this Friday as of less than a week ago, and now the low tracks much further south with the rain/snow line way down in southern Virginia on Friday. The cold wants to stick around for a while.
Right now Orleans and Niagara county are getting good snow but it is not making it into Monroe or Wayne county. Not sure it will and if it does it will be weak.
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 6:39 PM
Its snowing at my house...I live in Monroe County ;)
As luck would have it the portion of the band aimed directly at me is weakening the fastest -_-
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 6:50 PM
The band is weakening fast. We will be lucky toget a few inches out of this. Oh well. Maybe it will re-organize later.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 7:05 PM
A sudden gush of wind followed by the dimming of the nearby streetlamp...the band has come ashore.
Snowing VERY hard in Hilton. Solid 3"+ and falling hard! Band looks to be setting up shop right over Northwest Monroe...
Too bad we cant post videos or pictures on here.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 8:39 PM
Of course the band will be weakening and breaking up with a W/NW flow. We need to transition over to a multi-band setup with some Georgian Bay action. I'm pretty sure this will happen.
David January 22, 2013 at 8:51 PM
I dont think that band is weakening any time soon...
The whole lake effect snow is a joke for most of monroe county. It is always a bust unless you are right by the lake. Winter is over get ready for an early spring.
Any chance you could come up with a new line? It's just dumb now... it's not even annoying anymore.
There is spring all over my front yard!
David January 22, 2013 at 9:28 PM
we got solid 5" in Hilton and coming down
Great David we got absolutely cold air in the metro with no snow in sight. That has moved very little south and will not. A non event for most. I expect Mr. Hetsko to change his number projections shortly.
That band is really weak and has no chance getting to the metro especially since the fetch is off Lake Huron. I am with Macedon this whole thing is a big disappointment and I am starting to agree this whole winter is very much like last year. Our snow totals for the season are way down.
Did we see an extended stretch with highs in the teens last season? No we did not. You and Macedon are wrong on that count.
David January 22, 2013 at 9:39 PM
I think the band will continue to sink south, just taking its sweet time..
Not a very big band David. Ultimately Channel 13 got this right. Play it conservative with lake effect and you will be right more often than not.
Play it conservative with lake effect and you will be right half the time. Play it aggressively and you'll be right the other half. Playing conservative too much can result in everyone being caught off guard when an event ends up much worse than forecasted. When it comes to something as volatile and localized as lake effect it's not about being right, it's about preparing the public even if they might not need to be prepared. I don't know about anyone else here but I'd rather be ready for the worst than be caught with my thumb up my rear end.
David January 22, 2013 at 9:45 PM
Areas North of 104 just like Scott said will have 10+ And radar isnt picking up 100% of the snow.... Youll have snow on the ground by morning.... Areas north and west for a change might get 10, 12+ inches of fluff tonight... Maybe isolated more, north Hilton, Hamlin
Scott said at least 5-8 for all areas north of the Thruway that will not happen. The numbers north of the city may happen but that is how it always goes with lake effect. Predict his numbers will change on his 10:00 forecast. Numbers will drop big time for those north of Thruway near the metro.
Love how the map gets put for numbers that are 5-10 at 6 which includes all areas north of Thruway then make that inevitable change. Now city north but Pittsford, Penfield, Fairport no longer included they will see nothing. City will see very little too. No longer ever going to listen to a lake effect forecast because no one has a clue it is like throwing a dart at the dartboard. Enjoy along the lakeshore and west.
Are people really making comparisons to last winter? Did we see any forecasts last season for extended cold stretches? No we didn't, at least not in the short range. We are currently at the beginning of an extended (but not totally continuous) cold stretch, one which will be interrupted temporarily next week. February 1st will see a return to colder than average temps, though probably not as cold as we're getting now. If it plays out like that it could work to our advantage, with the possibility of more low level moisture being present.
I can sense some of you beginning to give up on the rest of winter. All I can say is that we still have a solid 8 weeks left where we can get significant snow events, a lot can happen in that time span. We'll most likely finish with below average snow, but I think we'll exceed the paltry 60 inches from last season. Do the math, we're at 30 inches so far. We need 31 to pass last season, easily achievable in an 8 week span (that includes all of February) in our region. Even if we continue at a below average pace we could still do it, from now until the end of the snow season we AVERAGE another 50 inches. We had only 18 this time last year and still got 60 total. Granted a large chunk of that was from one event, but even then it goes to show how quickly we can shrink a snowfall deficit in the winter.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:16 PM
I hope you are right but think you are wrong. With no snow in the forecast throuh next week January will finish way below normal with no storms in sight.
East Webster January 22, 2013 at 10:32 PM
Looks like a typical winter weather pattern developing to me. Nothing like last year. Regardless of what happens this week. I bet we get COLDER than this week in early February. The warm up next week will be brief.
There isn't any guidance indicating that the cold for early February will be as bad as or worse than this. We'll see what transpires though.
Hamlin Plower January 22, 2013 at 10:51 PM
Home for quick nap 3:00 AM comes early. HEAVY SNOW in Hamlin since 6:00 PM we have had 8-10 inches, VERY IMPRESIVE lake effect for some. Wind is starting to pick up again. Heaviest snowfall rate I have ever saw between 6:00-7:00. NOT A BUST!!!!!!!! ZIP CODE SNOW KEEP THAT IN MIND!!!!!
The bust area so far has been south of 104. The lake snow has been extremely reluctant to go much farther south than that, I'm guessing it's because the wind south of the lake has been stubbornly blowing out of the west thus keeping the bands from extending too far inland.
Weatherguy January 22, 2013 at 11:12 PM
Wind keeps shifting, which is preventing training of the clouds. Plus, the air is extremely dry, so it doesn't help those bands extend out much from the lake. LES is the hardest weather phenomenon to predict and I think we all need to still have the utmost respect for News 8. Plus, its only 11pm, so maybe lake ontario has a surprise for us while were all sleeping...
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:12 PM
BUST BUST BUST. Hamlin it is a bust. Just because you received snow does not mean it is not a bust. Most of us have seen nothing. I am in Central West Wayne county and the sky is clear and we have not had a flurry. The METS were wrong all the way.
You can't possibly declare the whole thing a bust. North of 104 has gotten what they expected to get, it's been areas south of 104 that have gotten the shaft. Besides, the event isn't even over. It's been a bust so far for you, for Hamlin Plower it hasn't been.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:31 PM
I have friends in Webster and Irondequoit that are North of 104 and they have received nothing.It is ok to be wrong they just have to admitt it. No-one is perfect.
Still it hasn't been an all-around bust. North of 104 west of Irondequoit has done just fine.
Relieved to say almost nothing here about 2 mi S of 104 on W side of city. All the snowmageddon stuff appears to be wrong--again. I just hope it stays this way. That band does appear to be breaking up some.
I also don't know what all the hype about this cold is. Ave low is 14 at this time of year--it's 7 --- so what? You'd think we were at minus 50 from all the local news outlets.
Long term forecasts from a couple of sources seem to indicate Feb could be nasty BUT (thank god) they expect end of Feb into March and April to be above ave in temp--so whoever has been talking an early spring could be right. With luck only about 4 more weeks of this drudgery to put up with.
The person talking about an early spring has been doing so for the past 3 weeks. According to that person we were supposed to be mowing lawns by now, so don't get your hopes up. There was never any talk of snowmageddon, there WAS talk about a decent snowfall across the region with more substantial snow near the lake. And what do you mean "again?" This is the first truly blown forecast of the season. The band isn't breaking up either, it appears to be maintaining its strength. There's hype about the cold because we haven't seen a stretch of cold like the one we began today in a few years, plus come on...the wind chill was -11 this morning. That's pretty freaking cold. Our average low for this date is 17 not 14, though I suppose it makes little practical difference. Discussing the forecast for the end of February at this point is pure guesswork at best, so I doubt your sources are all that reliable. It would do you a service to at least tell us what they are.
And winter weather (and for that matter non-destructive weather of any kind) is only drudgery if you don't know how to have fun with it ;)
Don't give me any whining about heating bills and shoveling, we all have to deal with those things.
NWS and TWC-- same predictions for March- April. I know they aren't at all reliable (especially if they forecast anything you don't like). Just reporting what I saw--and I hope they are right.
The person talking about the early spring is pulling your chains--successfully I might add.
Hamlin Plower January 23, 2013 at 3:23 AM
Looks like another 3-4 inches has fallen since 11:30 and still snowing. Well over 1 foot on the ground.
Macedon January 23, 2013 at 5:38 AM
Woke up to bare ground in Macedon. Total bust. Even the Mets this Am are saying it was a bust. Now we will hear the explanations as to why we did not get the snow in MOnroe and Wayen counties like they expected. Hamlin I am happy for you but you are the exception. Most of us received nothing.
As I predicted the lake effect snow is a joke and always is for the majority. Winter is over we not even get the snow totals from last year. Maybe a couple days cold but come on this winter is a joke. 40s next Tuesday get ready for the early spring like I have been saying. The snow mongers are angry and that is not going to change. People can justify that is was not a BUST but it was and only mets right was channel 13 bottom line.
DE January 23, 2013 at 7:28 AM
Be quiet and get a job. Stop harassing the REAL bloggers here. Just for your information, the 15 inches we received in the Kendall area was no lake effecct joke. You should be banned from this blog.
East Webster January 23, 2013 at 6:36 AM
Snowing hard in here. Maybe about 4 inches on the ground.
Just a dusting in NE Perinton. Living here for a long time I've never put too much faith in lake snow forecasts. They often don't manifest when forecast and then appear when not.
Statistically speaking, as I look at winters since 1943-- in years where we've had a snow deficit with less than 35" Nov-Jan, we have a better than 3:1 chance of having more snow in Feb & Mar than we had Nov-Jan. On average during those years about 48% more snow in Feb & March than fell Nov-Jan. Our total average for those years was 68".
The good thing is that I'm hearing plenty of cold air to come.
Still hard snow here in Ontario... another 4-6 inches today according to NWS with another 3-5 tonight that is still a decent storm... it is almost white out here in Ontario right now.
Ginger in Wayland January 23, 2013 at 9:16 AM
Is that storm system for Friday out of the question now?? Will we get any snow from that? (in the southerntier, Wayland/Dansville area)
nycowboy January 23, 2013 at 11:00 AM
No snow in Avon. Went outside last night and the moon and stars were out. I figured that there would be snow in Henrietta where I work, but nada, zero, zip. I'm not complaining. In Avon, if they predict 1-10", we get the 1" unless it is early in the season and the wind is VERY strong off Lake Erie or if there is synoptic snow, but that's about it.
Nothing Ginger and nothing coming in the future but a warm-up next week. Get ready for an early spring and a record for one of the least amounts of snow we have had ever.
Hey rosey palm, give it a rest and get out of mommy's basement. You've been proven wrong many times this season alone. Get a life.
Ginger in Wayland January 23, 2013 at 11:46 AM
So glad I have my snowmobile up for sale with 2 inquires so far. Even if it does snow in Feb. and March, I think I will take up snow tubing with my kids. We don't usually cash in on much lake effect here in Wayland, our usual hope is synoptic snow like nycowboy in Avon, there is no point in holding on to my snowmobile for a couple times a year. Anyone in the snowbelts interested? 2006 Ski-Doo Rev, let me know :-)
Chris Sodus Pt January 23, 2013 at 6:50 PM
Ginger - just keep it! You know we will get a lot of snow the day after you sell it. Instead of selling it, buy a cheap camp in Oswego County!!
M in Hilton January 23, 2013 at 12:02 PM
It's been snowing all day in Hilton. We have 8 or 9 inches on the ground so far. I do think it's funny that people say the forecasters get it wrong, when I very clearly hear them say time and time again that lake effect snow is impossible to predict in terms of who will get what amounts. The terms zip code snow, highly localized, etc are used all the time when talking lake effect. Seems to me they nailed it yet again. I also don't really understand the hostility from some people (namely anonymous, and his early spring comments). It's just the weather, after all. If it bothers you that much that you feel rage when the forecast is not what you want it to be, then perhaps the other posters are spot on...get a life. Or at least a hobby. Nobody should be that miserable about a weather forecast. :)
Anonymous January 23, 2013 at 12:06 PM
Why does everyone buy into the "early spring" comments? You guys do get that Anon is saying this for reaction right? Stop replying to this person and the attention seeking from them will stop and they'll go elsewhere!
Jay in Greece
Chris Sodus Pt January 23, 2013 at 6:49 PM
We ended up with about 11" here. The band came ashore with a bang last night at 7pm and dropped a quick 2" in 20 minutes. Then it stopped and I figured that would be all we would get. I woke up at 5am and noticed the snowbanks looked a lot bigger than they did last night. I took a measurement outside and the total was 11" in one spot, 14" in another (which was more protected from the wind).
I work in Clyde (southern Wayne County, about 8 miles north of I-90) and they had only about 1". Could still see the grass sticking up through the snow. It snowed lightly most of the day there, with a grand total of about 3".
Anonymous January 20, 2013 at 9:16 PM
This post proves that there will not be much snow for most of us. 1-4 is nothing and most of that will blow away. The snow drought unfortunatley will continue for Rochester.
Dude this is just for tonight into tomorrow. Snow chances will exist all week long. And what the h#ll are you talking about a "snow drought" for? It snowed a good bit three nights ago, where have you been?
Normal snowfall for Rochester is around 50 inches right now. We have had 29, well below normal.
This is Rochester, we could easily make up a 21 inch deficit in a short span of time. I'm not claiming to know that we will for sure, just saying it's possible so keep your chin up.
Jo-Sef January 20, 2013 at 9:52 PM
That band is impressive to look at, stretching all the way to Vermont/Mass
Caledonia January 20, 2013 at 11:58 PM
The track and intensity for the Friday storm isn't settled yet. I'd wait another 36-48 hours before getting too sure of anything.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 7:07 AM
Very little snow will fall this week for Rochester. Not looking good for snow lovers. At least they will be able to make snow at the ski resorts.
The minor system at the end of the week is also trending further south and looks to miss us.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 7:15 AM
Google inverted trough then look at the model again.
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 7:54 AM
Scott mentioned in his forcast last night that next week could be reaching 50 Again?? So glad I have my snowmobiles on Craigslist with a couple of bites. I may take up on their offers.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 11:07 AM
Throwing in the towel after 1.5 iffy winters?
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 9:08 AM
Only about 1/2" of snow fell last night in total. Areas east of here...Hannibal, Fulton...got lots of snow. Someone in Hannibal claimed zero visibility for several hours last night.
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 9:14 AM
This just in - areas north and west as well as north and east of Syracuse got about 2 feet of snow last night.
50 next week? i didn't hear any mention of that at 10pm from scott?
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Yes, I had my TV on and I do believe it was shortly before 11 when he did a weather update, I heard him say next week could be going into the 50's. Anyone see that happening??
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:31 PM
We do know that can happen. No doubt we get a warm period next week. I was thinking high 30's low 40's for a few days. But I didn't go to school and don't get paid to forecast so I most certainly go with Scott if he said that.
This as usual for LES is a bust! The storm at the end of the week nothing. Get ready for spring next week as I have said all along. It is nice out right now. Snow mongers forget it the winter is done very similar to last year.
Chris Sodus Pt January 21, 2013 at 10:35 AM
It is supposed to warm up for a couple of days next week, but nothing too extreme.
It will be a normal Winter through at least Feb.
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:36 PM
I think the first 7-10 days of February will get more active with the Southern stream getting more involved.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 12:02 PM
It will warm up next week because a storm will go West. I wonder if we will actually get below the snow we received last year.
Andrew January 21, 2013 at 12:18 PM
Not sure about the LES because very tough to call but do think the city will get hit tomorrow and tomorrow night with some good LES. However, i still believe that the storm late in the week brings us 8-10 inches of snow based on the trends and current GFS. That is how I see it but I am no expert.
Anonymous January 21, 2013 at 12:47 PM
I find it amazing how there can still be any talk about spring when we're forecasted to not get above the mid 20's for at least a week. There might be an interruption in the cold pattern for a day or two next week, but other than that we're stuck in the freezer for the foreseeable future. And keep in mind that the models often create breaks in the pattern that don't come to fruition. Remember when the late week storm was supposed to be a storm to our west that brought rain? Well look what happened. And I remember numerous times in 2010-11 where the cold pattern initially looked to break with a storm to our west, only for the storm to end up way east instead. That said, brief interruptions in the prevailing pattern happen all the time, and are by no means an indicator of spring's arrival. And I wouldn't be surprised if numerous such brief interruptions happened over the next several weeks.
As for snow chances, starting tonight metro Rochester should get in on some of the action, and I feel like most areas north of the Thruway will have at least six inches by Thursday evening. The widespread storm after that still does not look too impressive (it never did) but we still appear in line for a moderate snowfall regionwide. After that, back into the freezer with more lake effect chances.
All that can be said with any confidence about our final snow tally is we'll likely finish below average. My speculative guess however is that we'll get substantially more than last season, though still below average.
News 8 Weather January 21, 2013 at 12:54 PM
We do have a better shot at getting some LES starting tonight through most of Wednesday compared to last night when our wind direction was basically west, and the band funneled right into Cayuga and Oswego Counties. Steering wind and surface winds will be more NW during the period, which is much better for ROC, but that favors more multi-bands that are less intense.
Scott what do you think about the Friday storm potential?
I think that was John bro. Scott always puts his name at the end when he posts.
Sorry Andrew that storm at end of the week going south and east. Look at the latest Euro please. Spring is here. I have not seen a snowflake yet from the lake effect snow everyone was pumping up all weekend.
Notice how much difference there is between the Euro and the GFS. That difference means that there is little room to draw conclusions. Read News 8 Weather's post, starting tonight is when metro Rochester should see a better opportunity for lake effect. This event is supposed to last through Thursday, it's only Monday afternoon.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=NYZ003
If that's your idea of spring then I'm surprised you're sober enough to figure out your keyboard.
Ginger in Wayland January 21, 2013 at 2:12 PM
Spring is here? Just because it is not snowing does not mean spring is here...it's a balmy 20 degrees here in upstate NY @@
Pretty quiet on the blog tells me not much confidence in winter weather this week hitting Rochester. Temps spiking next week again with no storm activity in sight from the latest data. our snow totals will be well below average this winter. Much like last winter as I have been stating on this blog for the past few weeks but get called a troll.
I'm guessing you're not aware that most adults work from 8 to 4. I'm also guessing that you sit here all day refreshing the page looking for people to troll.
Much like last winter eh?
Doesn't look like last winter to me. Expect forecasts similar to this through the first week of February.
No storm activity in sight eh?
"CONTINUED COLD THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION."
Oh wait I forgot, anyone who doesn't agree with you is just a bullsh###er.
Weatherguy January 21, 2013 at 3:26 PM
Storm at the end of the week looks a little more promising. Even if we only get a general 3-6", I won't complain. Next weeks storm definitely bears watching as well....
Caledonia January 21, 2013 at 5:14 PM
You thinking 3-6 for greater Rochester? I was figuring 3-6 South of Geneseo. I won't complain about 3-6 either.
FINALLY a Lake Effect Snow Watch for the shoreline. FINALLY.
Snowluver January 21, 2013 at 4:05 PM
Can we hear what Scott is thinking about LES for Monroe County and the storm at the end of the week?
Where has John been? Is he on vacation?
Anyone know what the latest GFS run showed? Did it stay north or go south like the Euro?
Jo-Sef January 21, 2013 at 5:15 PM
Best chances for LES for the metro are Tuesday into Wednesday. The winds and temps will be good for significant multiband but drier air also begins working in Tuesday night. Both that and the storm at the end of the week are a wait and see situation. Euro and GFS aren't completely in agreement - GFS looks better. I don't see that trough getting as far South as the Euro is suggesting but I (like Andrew) am not an expert.
4-6 of fake fluff will fall. Not enough to snowmobile. That will shrink to about 2 inches at most since it is mostly air with no water content. NO BIG DEAL for Rochester.
Hamlin Plower January 21, 2013 at 8:02 PM
Lake snow getting ready to set up and move into North Hamlin. RIGHT ON SCHEDULE. We have got 2-3 so far last night and this afternoon, with much more snow to come this week.
-8 wind chill for my walk to class tomorrow morning. Not looking forward to that O__o fortunately it's a rather short walk. Still better than walking in high heat and humidity, and hopefully we'll have a little snow on the ground to compensate.
M in Hilton January 21, 2013 at 10:16 PM
So weird how lake snow works! Hamlin said he got 2-3 so far. I'm in Hilton, and we haven't got any. That's 5 miles away!
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 12:53 AM
Not a cloud in the sky in Macedon. Green grass and not even a flurry while other areas around Lake Erie are going to get 1-3 ft of fluff. A little jealous I have to say.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:23 AM
Lake effect snow warnings in place for Nothern Monroe and Wayne counties. This means that areas north of route 104 will get a good dumping of lake fluff while the rest of us south of route 104 will watch.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:28 AM
Oh how I would love to be in the Tug Hill right now. They are getting 2-4 inches per hour right now with snow totals of 3-4 ft by tomorrow. Wow!!!
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 6:09 AM
Wow! Their just getting hammered out there near Oswego right now. All we need is for that band to shift south on top of us! :)
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 7:12 AM
i live in oswego..we currently have 8 inches from the snow last night...the band is oscillating just to the northeast of us so there has been a lull in the action but its expected to shift south here by mid morning and were expected another foot
Another joke snow and cold event for Rochester. Most got nothing and will get nothing as usual. Strom Friday is nothing. The winter as stated is a joke and we might in most areas get less snow than last winter. The prediction for March/April warm! Time is running out snow mongers enjoy the early spring. Funny how one weather station has flurries for most today and tonight whiule Stacey had a 5-10 inch prediction for all north of the thruway. With lake effect they should just say it may snow somewhere hard somewhere not ha ha.
Charles Wachal January 22, 2013 at 7:33 AM
um.... where are you guys getting joke snow storm from... NWS is now forecasting 10-14 inches of snow today and another 7-11 inches tonight for me up here in Ontario
Yeah Charles you and the 27 other people up by the lakeshore are getting a lot of snow. The Rochester metro where most people live is getting squat.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:57 PM
The combined population of Greece, Irondequoit, Webster, Ontario, Williamson and Sodus is about 160,000.
David January 22, 2013 at 7:55 AM
Rochester metro will get in on it. I think a lot of Monroe will get on it. Obviously north of thruway, more..... Band is already coming south.... With the crazy ratios, were gonna get pounded, then a little storm area wide Friday....
Only North of Route 104 will get good snow but not 10-14 and 7-11. Our local mets are saying 6-12 in total from the whole event with the highest being North of 104.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:56 PM
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 4:58 PM
Sorry, this reply was intended for another post.
David January 22, 2013 at 8:33 AM
No snow on the ground as of yet in my neighborhood, but if you look upstream on radar you can see the wind beginning to veer to the northwest. NWS point-and-click calls for 5-10 inches of snow today through tomorrow at my house. The discussion text says this:
"THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO ROCHESTER AND ITS NORTHERN SUBURBS TONIGHT TO WEDNESDAY MORNING."
Holy shroom addiction is Troll Anon really still yammering about an early spring? The wind chill at the airport is -11 and I'm pretty sure the rest of the region is about the same save for the immediate lake shore. Plus the forecast looks bitter until Friday with no real mild air in sight. Talking about spring at this point is like talking about a ski trip in the middle of a heat wave.
When will the sun be back? I've been cooped up for so long! Will I ever be able to go out? ROCWhine
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 9:51 AM
Nice Georgian Bay connection happening :)
The point is Northern Suburbs of Rochester. North of 104 not including the city of Rochester. The band is not even moving South which the NWS stated might happen.
There will be nothing in the city so forget it. Also btw that Friday storm forget that too going south and east. Just jump on the spring weather ride it is nice.
Oh yeah, a totally spring-like 12 degrees right now, and an even more spring-like 13 tomorrow. But never fear, next week might be downright balmy with highs in the 20's/low 30's. Did anyone ever tell you that the F on your thermometer stands for Fahrenheit?
News 8 Weather January 22, 2013 at 11:56 AM
The band is still hanging over the lake and clipping northwestern Monroe County, while the norther 3rd of Orleans county has been getting snow almost all morning. Weather service went crazy with numbers this morning. I don't see those numbers happening in ROC unless that band that sets up overnight sets up over ROC. Assuming that band drops south, as we're expecting, we'll get a quick 2-5" this afternoon/evening, then wherever a single band (with a connection to Georgian Bay?) sets up will get the good stuff overnight. We're going with a GENERAL 5-10" north of the Thruway by Wednesday afternoon, and 2-5" south. Obviously we all know the nature of lake effect, and not everybody north of the Thruway will get that 5-10" Some spots get more, some get less. I'm guessing Scott will probably tweak numbers this afternoon when he gets in if he sees the need. In the meantime, we watch, and wait!
I am not sure, but it looks like that band across the Southern Shore of Lake Ontario is breaking down.
News 8 Weather January 22, 2013 at 12:18 PM
The intensity of the band falls back a little bit as the wind shifts more out of the northwest, which is what will push it onshore. You just don't have that long fetch over the whole length of the lake, and it adds a little more shear. So we won't get the 2-4"+/hour snowfall rates that they got in Oswego County this morning, but should still get some decent snowfall rates. Also, the VERY cold air will give us a high fluff factor.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 12:28 PM
NWS did go crazy with those numbers. I don't think I'll be seeing much of anything up here by highland park until the sun goes down. Waiting...
The NWS always always over-forecasts lake effect. 2-5 inches is nothing. Good to whiten the ground and that is it. It is fake fluff full of air so it will be 1 inch on the ground once it compresses.
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 1:06 PM
Not always. Remember last February when they forecasted advisory criteria snows for a lake effect event? We got over a foot. The theme is that lake effect is very tough to predict, sometimes the forecast is too high and other times it's too low. That said, the NWS is clearly overdoing it this time. It's really tough to see anything near the amounts in the warning text verifying unless you live near the lake from Webster east. As for the 2-5 inches, that's for south of the thruway. John predicted 5-10 inches in general north of the thruway, and last I checked he doesn't work for the NWS.
I am not an expert but it looks like the band is shifting more north than south. I just do not see 5-10. We will see though.
FROM THE NWS- RECENT UPDATE:
HAVE SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOW BAND BASED ON BOTH RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WHICH SHOW THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BAND ONLY SLOWLY
NUDGING SOUTHWARD AND STILL LARGELY HUNG UP OVER OSWEGO AND
EXTREME NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. WHILE WE STILL EXPECT THIS BAND TO
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO ENTIRE NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY STRIP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STEERING WINDS VEER A LITTLE MORE...THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON THE WORST OF IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS OSWEGO AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 3
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3 inches per hour...it's been a long time since I've personally witnessed snowfall rates that high. I'd bet there's some very occasional thunder and lightning in the most intense part of that band.
Some areas like Fulton are getting 5 inches per hour. That is amazing. Very Very jealous.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 4:52 PM
37 inches + as of noon in the Pulaski area.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 1:22 PM
I wonder how Hamlin's doing, it seems like it's been pretty steady there. It's gotta be nice to get more work/more money every time it snows.
I wonder when that band will drift south again it keeps drifting more and more north
Folks please understand this band is not coming to the metro area or any of those suburbs. This lake effect is a joke it impacts very small amounts of people. Hate it.
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:12 PM
I wish you would leave your comments to yourself.
Friday's storm history, bright sun now, TWC had 3 month trends,WARM in March and warming up next week. Sounds like an early spring to me. I guess the troll is not that far off base is she. Move on people do not sit by you radar and wait for the snow band to drop south. It is over no snow for you! The rest of the winter will see less snow and above average temperatures. In fact we may get less snow this winter than last year.
TWC is to meteorology what MTV is to music. People stopped taking them seriously years ago. Besides, didn't their winter outlook last season call for a cold winter?
Read Joe Lundberg's blog from today:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/the-cold-and-th/4655678
I doubt you have the attention span to do that so I'll just quote the important bit:
"Late in the weekend, though, a system coming out of the southern Plains will push the arctic air aside a little more forcefully going into next week. It'll lead to a three-day reprieve from the bitter cold, but that may be it. Looking even farther ahead, they might want to find some way of keeping the den of Phil artificially warm. Another blast of bitter arctic air may be waiting in the wings by Groundhog Day."
This is coming from a man who is a big time warm-lover. He doesn't pander to snow enthusiasts and he calls it like he sees it. And he sees only three days of rest from the bitter cold. Additionally, Don Paul over at WIVB in Buffalo also sees colder than average temps returning after a TEMPORARY warmup. He is a forecasting veteran and one of the best there is. So you can put that early spring nonsense away for the next few weeks at least.
As for the lake effect, the NWS expects the band to drop south towards metro Rochester by the evening hours. Its southward progression has been s
lower than expected, but it should still sag south at some point later today and into the evening. And as for the storm later this week, please point us to the forecast that calls for bright sun on Friday, because I can't find one.
Still waiting for that data supporting an early spring...weren't our tulips supposed to be in full bloom by now according to you?
The troll is a woman??
Assuming such simple creatures can have a gender then apparently yes.
David January 22, 2013 at 3:10 PM
To drop, or not to drop, that is the question...
D-D-D-D-D-D-D-D-DROP THE BAND
Skrillex anyone?
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:18 PM
Seems like Scott likes the idea of 5-10 inches north of the Thruway based on his latest FB post.
Does anyone know if the mean troll is right about Friday? Is that storm now nothing here because it is going south. Thougth some said this would be a moderate snowfall. Think one blogger said the other day we would get 8 inches?
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 3:46 PM
We won't know who is right until the storm actually happens. All we know is that most forecasts have at least likely chances for snow out of it in our region, of the moderate variety. 8 inches may happen for someone, but that someone is not us.
Caledonia January 22, 2013 at 3:50 PM
3-5 seems more realistic to me.
David January 22, 2013 at 3:44 PM
The band is filling in South. Notice the wind sheer and radar south of Toronto, over the lake... Shift is FINALLY happening
Hamlin Plower January 22, 2013 at 4:17 PM
Home for quick dinner break. Snowed all day, Moderate to heavy in northern half of Hamlin, while the sun shined on the southern half of Hamlin. Many whiteouts and some drifting. Next band coming in will give us heavy accumulations in Hamlin tonight. It might snow all week in North Hamlin where I plow and live. VERY WINTERY HERE FOR SURE!!!!
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 4:56 PM
I'm obviously moving to North Hamlin. My grandfather grew up in Walker. Wish I lived there right now!
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 5:00 PM
No snow here yet, but skies just to the north look very ominous. Areas north of Syracuse measuring snow in feet today.
I am in Wolcott right now no snow yet but the entire sky is now cloudy with very dark clouds to our north... the sun was out earlier today for most of the day but has since the sky is 100% cloudy
Anonymous January 22, 2013 at 5:27 PM
Any updates from Scott?
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:47 PM
Fulton, North of Syracuse has been reporting HEAVT SNOW for the last 8 hours. I believe they will close in on 4 ft which will compact to 1 ft when it settles. Macedon has clear skies and green grass.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:50 PM
The band is now moving South but will weaken significantly before it hits metro Rochester.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 5:56 PM
Occasional flurries and lake snow. Accumulation ranging from 3-6" north of Rt. 104. Minimal accumulation south of Rt. 104.
Channel 13 has by far the lowest accumulation forecast. Scott has 6-10 near the lake with 5-8 generally north of the Thruway (forgive me if he changed anything for the TV broadcast, haven't gotten around to seeing it yet and this was taken off FB earlier). Even Mr. Doomsday over at Channel 10 has 4-8 across the metro with up to a foot near the lake.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 6:22 PM
Since miscalculating the arrival of the first cold air (12/10 - it arrived on 12/21), he has actually been pretty accurate this winter.
Looks like a big warmup next week so whatever snow get over the next few days will be it for January.
I'm not sure the warmup next week will be quite as pronounced as advertised. The prevailing pattern over the next few weeks is a cold one, and I've noticed that the prevailing pattern can be stubborn to yield in the face of interrupting forces. This seems to happen for prevailing warm patterns too, where cold interruptions end up shorter and less cold than advertised. Whatever moderation we see should only last three days at the most, as there is strong agreement amongst the various ensembles that the pattern will return to a state similar to now for the first week of February.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 8:35 PM
Agreed. Remember the models were all calling for a rain to snow event this Friday as of less than a week ago, and now the low tracks much further south with the rain/snow line way down in southern Virginia on Friday. The cold wants to stick around for a while.
Right now Orleans and Niagara county are getting good snow but it is not making it into Monroe or Wayne county. Not sure it will and if it does it will be weak.
Snowluver January 22, 2013 at 6:39 PM
Its snowing at my house...I live in Monroe County ;)
As luck would have it the portion of the band aimed directly at me is weakening the fastest -_-
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 6:50 PM
The band is weakening fast. We will be lucky toget a few inches out of this. Oh well. Maybe it will re-organize later.
Chris Sodus Pt January 22, 2013 at 7:05 PM
A sudden gush of wind followed by the dimming of the nearby streetlamp...the band has come ashore.
Snowing VERY hard in Hilton. Solid 3"+ and falling hard! Band looks to be setting up shop right over Northwest Monroe...
Too bad we cant post videos or pictures on here.
Jo-Sef January 22, 2013 at 8:39 PM
Of course the band will be weakening and breaking up with a W/NW flow. We need to transition over to a multi-band setup with some Georgian Bay action. I'm pretty sure this will happen.
David January 22, 2013 at 8:51 PM
I dont think that band is weakening any time soon...
The whole lake effect snow is a joke for most of monroe county. It is always a bust unless you are right by the lake. Winter is over get ready for an early spring.
Any chance you could come up with a new line? It's just dumb now... it's not even annoying anymore.
There is spring all over my front yard!
David January 22, 2013 at 9:28 PM
we got solid 5" in Hilton and coming down
Great David we got absolutely cold air in the metro with no snow in sight. That has moved very little south and will not. A non event for most. I expect Mr. Hetsko to change his number projections shortly.
That band is really weak and has no chance getting to the metro especially since the fetch is off Lake Huron. I am with Macedon this whole thing is a big disappointment and I am starting to agree this whole winter is very much like last year. Our snow totals for the season are way down.
Did we see an extended stretch with highs in the teens last season? No we did not. You and Macedon are wrong on that count.
David January 22, 2013 at 9:39 PM
I think the band will continue to sink south, just taking its sweet time..
Not a very big band David. Ultimately Channel 13 got this right. Play it conservative with lake effect and you will be right more often than not.
Play it conservative with lake effect and you will be right half the time. Play it aggressively and you'll be right the other half. Playing conservative too much can result in everyone being caught off guard when an event ends up much worse than forecasted. When it comes to something as volatile and localized as lake effect it's not about being right, it's about preparing the public even if they might not need to be prepared. I don't know about anyone else here but I'd rather be ready for the worst than be caught with my thumb up my rear end.
David January 22, 2013 at 9:45 PM
Areas North of 104 just like Scott said will have 10+ And radar isnt picking up 100% of the snow.... Youll have snow on the ground by morning.... Areas north and west for a change might get 10, 12+ inches of fluff tonight... Maybe isolated more, north Hilton, Hamlin
Scott said at least 5-8 for all areas north of the Thruway that will not happen. The numbers north of the city may happen but that is how it always goes with lake effect. Predict his numbers will change on his 10:00 forecast. Numbers will drop big time for those north of Thruway near the metro.
Love how the map gets put for numbers that are 5-10 at 6 which includes all areas north of Thruway then make that inevitable change. Now city north but Pittsford, Penfield, Fairport no longer included they will see nothing. City will see very little too. No longer ever going to listen to a lake effect forecast because no one has a clue it is like throwing a dart at the dartboard. Enjoy along the lakeshore and west.
Are people really making comparisons to last winter? Did we see any forecasts last season for extended cold stretches? No we didn't, at least not in the short range. We are currently at the beginning of an extended (but not totally continuous) cold stretch, one which will be interrupted temporarily next week. February 1st will see a return to colder than average temps, though probably not as cold as we're getting now. If it plays out like that it could work to our advantage, with the possibility of more low level moisture being present.
I can sense some of you beginning to give up on the rest of winter. All I can say is that we still have a solid 8 weeks left where we can get significant snow events, a lot can happen in that time span. We'll most likely finish with below average snow, but I think we'll exceed the paltry 60 inches from last season. Do the math, we're at 30 inches so far. We need 31 to pass last season, easily achievable in an 8 week span (that includes all of February) in our region. Even if we continue at a below average pace we could still do it, from now until the end of the snow season we AVERAGE another 50 inches. We had only 18 this time last year and still got 60 total. Granted a large chunk of that was from one event, but even then it goes to show how quickly we can shrink a snowfall deficit in the winter.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:16 PM
I hope you are right but think you are wrong. With no snow in the forecast throuh next week January will finish way below normal with no storms in sight.
East Webster January 22, 2013 at 10:32 PM
Looks like a typical winter weather pattern developing to me. Nothing like last year. Regardless of what happens this week. I bet we get COLDER than this week in early February. The warm up next week will be brief.
There isn't any guidance indicating that the cold for early February will be as bad as or worse than this. We'll see what transpires though.
Hamlin Plower January 22, 2013 at 10:51 PM
Home for quick nap 3:00 AM comes early. HEAVY SNOW in Hamlin since 6:00 PM we have had 8-10 inches, VERY IMPRESIVE lake effect for some. Wind is starting to pick up again. Heaviest snowfall rate I have ever saw between 6:00-7:00. NOT A BUST!!!!!!!! ZIP CODE SNOW KEEP THAT IN MIND!!!!!
The bust area so far has been south of 104. The lake snow has been extremely reluctant to go much farther south than that, I'm guessing it's because the wind south of the lake has been stubbornly blowing out of the west thus keeping the bands from extending too far inland.
Weatherguy January 22, 2013 at 11:12 PM
Wind keeps shifting, which is preventing training of the clouds. Plus, the air is extremely dry, so it doesn't help those bands extend out much from the lake. LES is the hardest weather phenomenon to predict and I think we all need to still have the utmost respect for News 8. Plus, its only 11pm, so maybe lake ontario has a surprise for us while were all sleeping...
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:12 PM
BUST BUST BUST. Hamlin it is a bust. Just because you received snow does not mean it is not a bust. Most of us have seen nothing. I am in Central West Wayne county and the sky is clear and we have not had a flurry. The METS were wrong all the way.
You can't possibly declare the whole thing a bust. North of 104 has gotten what they expected to get, it's been areas south of 104 that have gotten the shaft. Besides, the event isn't even over. It's been a bust so far for you, for Hamlin Plower it hasn't been.
Macedon January 22, 2013 at 11:31 PM
I have friends in Webster and Irondequoit that are North of 104 and they have received nothing.It is ok to be wrong they just have to admitt it. No-one is perfect.
Still it hasn't been an all-around bust. North of 104 west of Irondequoit has done just fine.
Relieved to say almost nothing here about 2 mi S of 104 on W side of city. All the snowmageddon stuff appears to be wrong--again. I just hope it stays this way. That band does appear to be breaking up some.
I also don't know what all the hype about this cold is. Ave low is 14 at this time of year--it's 7 --- so what? You'd think we were at minus 50 from all the local news outlets.
Long term forecasts from a couple of sources seem to indicate Feb could be nasty BUT (thank god) they expect end of Feb into March and April to be above ave in temp--so whoever has been talking an early spring could be right. With luck only about 4 more weeks of this drudgery to put up with.
The person talking about an early spring has been doing so for the past 3 weeks. According to that person we were supposed to be mowing lawns by now, so don't get your hopes up. There was never any talk of snowmageddon, there WAS talk about a decent snowfall across the region with more substantial snow near the lake. And what do you mean "again?" This is the first truly blown forecast of the season. The band isn't breaking up either, it appears to be maintaining its strength. There's hype about the cold because we haven't seen a stretch of cold like the one we began today in a few years, plus come on...the wind chill was -11 this morning. That's pretty freaking cold. Our average low for this date is 17 not 14, though I suppose it makes little practical difference. Discussing the forecast for the end of February at this point is pure guesswork at best, so I doubt your sources are all that reliable. It would do you a service to at least tell us what they are.
And winter weather (and for that matter non-destructive weather of any kind) is only drudgery if you don't know how to have fun with it ;)
Don't give me any whining about heating bills and shoveling, we all have to deal with those things.
NWS and TWC-- same predictions for March- April. I know they aren't at all reliable (especially if they forecast anything you don't like). Just reporting what I saw--and I hope they are right.
The person talking about the early spring is pulling your chains--successfully I might add.
Hamlin Plower January 23, 2013 at 3:23 AM
Looks like another 3-4 inches has fallen since 11:30 and still snowing. Well over 1 foot on the ground.
Macedon January 23, 2013 at 5:38 AM
Woke up to bare ground in Macedon. Total bust. Even the Mets this Am are saying it was a bust. Now we will hear the explanations as to why we did not get the snow in MOnroe and Wayen counties like they expected. Hamlin I am happy for you but you are the exception. Most of us received nothing.
As I predicted the lake effect snow is a joke and always is for the majority. Winter is over we not even get the snow totals from last year. Maybe a couple days cold but come on this winter is a joke. 40s next Tuesday get ready for the early spring like I have been saying. The snow mongers are angry and that is not going to change. People can justify that is was not a BUST but it was and only mets right was channel 13 bottom line.
DE January 23, 2013 at 7:28 AM
Be quiet and get a job. Stop harassing the REAL bloggers here. Just for your information, the 15 inches we received in the Kendall area was no lake effecct joke. You should be banned from this blog.
East Webster January 23, 2013 at 6:36 AM
Snowing hard in here. Maybe about 4 inches on the ground.
Just a dusting in NE Perinton. Living here for a long time I've never put too much faith in lake snow forecasts. They often don't manifest when forecast and then appear when not.
Statistically speaking, as I look at winters since 1943-- in years where we've had a snow deficit with less than 35" Nov-Jan, we have a better than 3:1 chance of having more snow in Feb & Mar than we had Nov-Jan. On average during those years about 48% more snow in Feb & March than fell Nov-Jan. Our total average for those years was 68".
The good thing is that I'm hearing plenty of cold air to come.
Still hard snow here in Ontario... another 4-6 inches today according to NWS with another 3-5 tonight that is still a decent storm... it is almost white out here in Ontario right now.
Ginger in Wayland January 23, 2013 at 9:16 AM
Is that storm system for Friday out of the question now?? Will we get any snow from that? (in the southerntier, Wayland/Dansville area)
nycowboy January 23, 2013 at 11:00 AM
No snow in Avon. Went outside last night and the moon and stars were out. I figured that there would be snow in Henrietta where I work, but nada, zero, zip. I'm not complaining. In Avon, if they predict 1-10", we get the 1" unless it is early in the season and the wind is VERY strong off Lake Erie or if there is synoptic snow, but that's about it.
Nothing Ginger and nothing coming in the future but a warm-up next week. Get ready for an early spring and a record for one of the least amounts of snow we have had ever.
Hey rosey palm, give it a rest and get out of mommy's basement. You've been proven wrong many times this season alone. Get a life.
Ginger in Wayland January 23, 2013 at 11:46 AM
So glad I have my snowmobile up for sale with 2 inquires so far. Even if it does snow in Feb. and March, I think I will take up snow tubing with my kids. We don't usually cash in on much lake effect here in Wayland, our usual hope is synoptic snow like nycowboy in Avon, there is no point in holding on to my snowmobile for a couple times a year. Anyone in the snowbelts interested? 2006 Ski-Doo Rev, let me know :-)
Chris Sodus Pt January 23, 2013 at 6:50 PM
Ginger - just keep it! You know we will get a lot of snow the day after you sell it. Instead of selling it, buy a cheap camp in Oswego County!!
M in Hilton January 23, 2013 at 12:02 PM
It's been snowing all day in Hilton. We have 8 or 9 inches on the ground so far. I do think it's funny that people say the forecasters get it wrong, when I very clearly hear them say time and time again that lake effect snow is impossible to predict in terms of who will get what amounts. The terms zip code snow, highly localized, etc are used all the time when talking lake effect. Seems to me they nailed it yet again. I also don't really understand the hostility from some people (namely anonymous, and his early spring comments). It's just the weather, after all. If it bothers you that much that you feel rage when the forecast is not what you want it to be, then perhaps the other posters are spot on...get a life. Or at least a hobby. Nobody should be that miserable about a weather forecast. :)
Anonymous January 23, 2013 at 12:06 PM
Why does everyone buy into the "early spring" comments? You guys do get that Anon is saying this for reaction right? Stop replying to this person and the attention seeking from them will stop and they'll go elsewhere!
Jay in Greece
Chris Sodus Pt January 23, 2013 at 6:49 PM
We ended up with about 11" here. The band came ashore with a bang last night at 7pm and dropped a quick 2" in 20 minutes. Then it stopped and I figured that would be all we would get. I woke up at 5am and noticed the snowbanks looked a lot bigger than they did last night. I took a measurement outside and the total was 11" in one spot, 14" in another (which was more protected from the wind).
I work in Clyde (southern Wayne County, about 8 miles north of I-90) and they had only about 1". Could still see the grass sticking up through the snow. It snowed lightly most of the day there, with a grand total of about 3".