Endless Voyage: Predictions for 2009
I refuse to make predictions for 2009. It's silly and pointless. In the end, it's just a massive ego trip. When one of your 'predictions' comes out to be true, you dance and shout and say 'Ha! See I was right!'. Often the points that they predict correctly were inevitable or something of a coin flip (if there are only two or three true courses of actions, you have about a one in three chance of being right). Big deal.And it has reached the point where many people (rightly) don't put much faith into these things.I don't try to make predictions. I do try, however, to think through something. There is a big difference there. The first is asserting that something will happen. The second is wussing out and listing possibilities of what may happen. Part of that is my reluctance to look silly when I'm wrong. And part of that is recognizing that I think it's better to prepare rather than blindly hope or state that something is going to happen.For instance, I see lots of people predicting that Second Life will die. Ok, well and good. But having stated that, what do you plan to do? Stand around and watch it die? That's no good. I'd rather do something about it. Even if the Lindens don't listen, don't care, at least I can say I made my peace and wrote something about it.
Endless Voyage: Predictions for 2009
I refuse to make predictions for 2009. It's silly and pointless. In the end, it's just a massive ego trip. When one of your 'predictions' comes out to be true, you dance and shout and say 'Ha! See I was right!'. Often the points that they predict correctly were inevitable or something of a coin flip (if there are only two or three true courses of actions, you have about a one in three chance of being right). Big deal.And it has reached the point where many people (rightly) don't put much faith into these things.I don't try to make predictions. I do try, however, to think through something. There is a big differenc
e there. The first is asserting that something will happen. The second is wussing out and listing possibilities of what may happen. Part of that is my reluctance to look silly when I'm wrong. And part of that is recognizing that I think it's better to prepare rather than blindly hope or state that something is going to happen.For instance, I see lots of people predicting that Second Life will die. Ok, well and good. But having stated that, what do you plan to do? Stand around and watch it die? That's no good. I'd rather do something about it. Even if the Lindens don't listen, don't care, at least I can say I made my peace and wrote something about it.